Luke Raley's home run props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 10% overs across his last 10 games with a devastating -80.9% ROI for over backers. Currently averaging 0.1 home runs against typical 0.5 lines, Raley appears locked in a power drought that shows no signs of breaking.
Expert Analysis
Luke Raley's power collapse over this 10-game stretch represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props. Averaging just 0.1 home runs per game against standard 0.5 lines creates a massive -0.4 differential that has produced consistent profits for under bettors. The 71.8% ROI on unders reflects not just the frequency of wins, but the value embedded in these props. Raley's current stretch includes a six-game homerless streak and only one game with a home run in the entire sample. This isn't variance - it's a fundamental shift in his offensive profile. The late-season timing suggests fatigue, mechanical adjustments, or opposing teams successfully exploiting weaknesses in his swing. Without split data to identify specific vulnerabilities, the trend appears consistent across all conditions. The three-game under streak builds momentum, and with books likely slow to adjust lines due to Raley's season-long power numbers, the edge persists. The risk lies in regression to his seasonal mean, but the sample size and consistency suggest this represents his current true talent level rather than temporary bad luck.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Luke Raley's home run props offer exceptional value with books failing to adjust to his power drought. The 90% under rate combined with strong ROI creates a rare high-conviction spot. Target this trend in all game situations until the market corrects or Raley shows signs of breaking out. Main risk is sudden power surge, but the consistency suggests continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Luke Raley's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Luke Raley has gone 1-9-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10% of his over bets. He's managed only one home run total across this entire stretch, creating one of the most lopsided prop trends in recent memory.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Luke Raley Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet UNDER on Luke Raley's home run props with high confidence. The 90% under rate and 71.8% ROI create exceptional value. His power drought shows no signs of ending, making unders the clear profitable play until the trend breaks.
What's Luke Raley's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Luke Raley is averaging 0.1 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, well below the typical 0.5 line. This -0.4 differential represents a significant gap that has consistently favored under bettors throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Luke Raley home run unders in any game situation currently. The trend appears consistent across all conditions without notable splits. Target props immediately when posted, as books haven't fully adjusted to his power drought and value remains strong.