Austin Riley's home run production has cratered over his last 10 games, going 4-6-0 on the over with a devastating -23.6% ROI for over bettors. His 0.4 average sits a full tenth below the typical 0.5 line, creating clear value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Austin Riley's power outage over this 10-game stretch reflects a concerning trend that goes beyond normal variance. Averaging just 0.4 home runs per game against a standard 0.5 line, Riley has failed to reach his expected output in 60% of these contests. The -23.6% ROI for over bettors tells the story of a hitter whose timing and barrel contact have been notably off. This isn't simply bad luck—when a player of Riley's caliber consistently falls short of modest expectations, it often signals mechanical issues or fatigue. The fact that he's managed just two consecutive overs as his longest streak suggests his power stroke lacks consistency right now. While Riley's track record demands respect, the data shows he's been significantly more likely to disappoint than exceed expectations. The 14.6% ROI on unders during this period represents genuine value, especially considering Riley enters most games with inflated public perception. His current two-game under streak aligns with the broader trend of subdued power production. This pattern appears sustainable in the near term, as timing adjustments typically take longer than 10 games to fully implement.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Riley's power numbers have been consistently below market expectations, creating a clear edge for under bettors who've profited at a 14.6% clip. The ideal spots are when books set his line at 0.5, where his 0.4 average provides measurable value. The main risk is Riley's proven ability to break out of slumps explosively, but the data suggests his struggles have genuine underlying causes rather than simple variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Austin Riley's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Austin Riley has gone 4-6-0 on his home run over/under in his last 10 games, hitting the over in just 40% of contests. Over bettors have lost money at a -23.6% rate during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Austin Riley Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Austin Riley's home runs. His 0.4 average sits below the typical 0.5 line, and under bettors have profited at 14.6% while overs have been costly at -23.6% ROI.
What's Austin Riley's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Austin Riley is averaging 0.4 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, which sits 0.1 below the standard 0.5 line that books typically set for his props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Riley home run unders when books post 0.5 lines, where his recent 0.4 average creates clear mathematical value. Avoid during favorable hitting conditions like warm weather and hitter-friendly ballparks.