The public often underestimates the Washington Commanders in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Washington Commanders hold a record of 14-7-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +27.3% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $6 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record14-7-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size21 games
ROI+27.3%
Units Won+5.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-2-00.0%-100.0%
20151-1-00.0%-4.5%
20163-0-00.0%+90.9%
20171-1-00.0%-4.5%
20181-0-00.0%+90.9%
20192-0-00.0%+90.9%
20202-0-00.0%+90.9%
20212-1-00.0%+27.3%
20222-0-00.0%+90.9%
20230-2-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Commanders' success as large underdogs stems from their organizational identity as a franchise that thrives when expectations are lowest. Washington has historically performed best when playing with house money, freed from the pressure of being favored or even competitive on paper. This psychological edge manifests in more aggressive play-calling and looser execution, as coaches abandon conservative game plans that might work against weaker opponents but fail against superior teams. Strategically, Washington's coaching staff has shown a willingness to deploy unconventional schemes when facing overwhelming talent deficits. These situations often bring out creative offensive packages, unexpected defensive alignments, and special teams tricks that catch favored opponents off-guard. Elite teams frequently struggle with motivation and preparation against perceived inferior opponents, creating the perfect storm for an upset-minded underdog. The franchise's transient nature over the past decade has also bred players accustomed to proving doubters wrong. Veterans fighting for roster spots and young players seeking to establish themselves bring maximum effort in these showcase opportunities against premier competition. This trend carries the most weight in primetime games or division matchups where Washington can leverage familiarity and motivation against complacent favorites who may be looking ahead to more challenging opponents.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Washington Commanders's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?

The Washington Commanders have a 14-7-0 ATS record as large underdogs (+7.5 or more) from 2014-2024. This represents a strong 66.7% ATS win rate in games where they were significant underdogs.

Is betting on the Washington Commanders as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?

Yes, betting on the Washington Commanders as large underdogs has been highly profitable with a 27.3% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite never winning these games outright (0.0% win rate), they consistently covered the spread at a high rate.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 66.7% ATS performance significantly exceeds the typical league average of around 50% for large underdogs. The 27.3% ROI also substantially outperforms standard betting expectations, making this one of the more profitable situational trends in the NFL.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.