The data suggests caution when backing the Washington Commanders in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Washington Commanders are just 5-19-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -60.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +60.2%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record5-19-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size24 games
ROI-60.2%
Units Won-14.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-1-00.0%-4.5%
20150-4-00.0%-100.0%
20172-2-00.0%-4.5%
20181-2-00.0%-36.4%
20190-1-00.0%-100.0%
20210-3-00.0%-100.0%
20221-1-00.0%-4.5%
20230-2-00.0%-100.0%
20240-3-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Commanders' struggles as road favorites stem from a fundamental organizational instability that has plagued the franchise for over a decade. When Washington travels as a favorite, they're typically facing teams perceived as weaker, but this creates a dangerous overconfidence dynamic. The franchise's inconsistent coaching changes and front office turnover have created a culture where the team struggles to maintain focus against supposedly inferior opponents, particularly in hostile road environments. Washington's offensive identity has been muddled throughout this period, lacking the explosive playmakers needed to quickly silence road crowds and establish dominance. When favored on the road, they often face teams with nothing to lose and everything to prove, creating the perfect storm for emotional letdowns. The Commanders have historically been a team that plays to their competition's level, making them vulnerable when expectations are elevated. The psychological burden of being road favorites appears to weigh heavily on a franchise still searching for consistent leadership and identity. Players seem to press when expected to dominate weaker opponents away from home, leading to uncharacteristic mistakes and conservative play-calling. This trend matters most when Washington travels as a moderate favorite against teams with strong home field advantages or those coming off embarrassing losses.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Washington Commanders's ATS record as away favorite?

The Washington Commanders have a 5-19-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in just 20.8% of those games. This represents one of the worst ATS performances for any team in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Washington Commanders as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Washington Commanders as away favorites is extremely unprofitable with a -60.2% ROI. A $100 bet on each game would have resulted in approximately $1,440 in losses over this 10-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as away favorites typically cover around 45-50% of the time. The Commanders' 20.8% cover rate as away favorites is well below any reasonable benchmark for NFL teams.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.