The data suggests caution when backing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a win, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are just 17-20-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -12.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +12.3%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record17-20-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size37 games
ROI-12.3%
Units Won-4.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-1-00.0%-4.5%
20153-1-00.0%+43.2%
20161-2-00.0%-36.4%
20171-2-00.0%-36.4%
20183-1-00.0%+43.2%
20192-3-00.0%-23.6%
20200-2-00.0%-100.0%
20212-2-00.0%-4.5%
20222-2-00.0%-4.5%
20242-4-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Buccaneers' struggles after victories stem from a combination of organizational inconsistency and the psychological challenges that plagued the franchise during their wilderness years. Tampa Bay's post-win letdowns reflect a team that historically lacked the championship culture needed to maintain focus after success. During the Jameis Winston era and early Tom Brady transition, the Bucs often played with house money after big wins, leading to preparation lapses and overconfidence against supposedly inferior opponents. The franchise's boom-or-bust offensive philosophy compounds this issue. Tampa Bay's vertical passing attack and aggressive defensive schemes create volatile performances that don't translate well to consistent covering after emotional victories. When riding high from a previous week's success, the Buccaneers have shown a tendency to abandon their disciplined game plans, particularly in road spots where they've historically struggled with focus. The coaching staff's approach to managing expectations after wins has been problematic, with players often publicly celebrating individual achievements rather than maintaining team-first mentality. This creates a perfect storm for letdown spots, especially against divisional opponents who know Tampa Bay's tendencies. This trend matters most when the Buccaneers are coming off statement wins against quality opponents, particularly in divisional road games where motivation and preparation become paramount.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers's ATS record as after a win?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone 17-20-0 against the spread (ATS) in games following a win from 2014-2024. This represents a 45.9% ATS win rate over 37 games.

Is betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as after a win profitable?

No, betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after a win has not been profitable. With a -12.3% ROI and a 45.9% ATS win rate, bettors would have lost money consistently over this 11-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is below the expected 50% baseline for ATS betting. The Buccaneers' 45.9% ATS win rate after wins indicates they have consistently failed to cover spreads in bounce-back situations, making them a fade candidate in this spot.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.