The data suggests caution when backing the Seattle Seahawks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Seattle Seahawks are just 2-8-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -61.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +61.8%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record2-8-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size10 games
ROI-61.8%
Units Won-6.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20150-1-00.0%-100.0%
20160-3-00.0%-100.0%
20190-1-00.0%-100.0%
20202-1-00.0%+27.3%
20220-2-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Seahawks' struggles as home favorites following losses stem from a combination of psychological fragility and tactical predictability that has plagued the franchise for nearly a decade. Seattle's identity has long been built around their defensive prowess and crowd noise advantage at CenturyLink Field, but when coming off defeats, the team appears to press too hard to recapture that dominant form. This overcompensation often leads to uncharacteristic mistakes and conservative play-calling that fails to cover inflated spreads. Pete Carroll's coaching philosophy emphasizes emotional momentum and team chemistry, which works brilliantly during winning streaks but creates vulnerability after setbacks. The Seahawks tend to abandon their ground game too quickly when trailing, forcing Russell Wilson (and now Geno Smith) into high-pressure situations where they're expected to single-handedly overcome both the previous loss and elevated expectations. The home crowd's heightened anticipation after a loss paradoxically adds pressure rather than providing the typical 12th man boost. Seattle's offensive line inconsistencies become magnified in these spots, as opposing defenses gameplan more aggressively knowing the Seahawks will likely be one-dimensional. Smart bettors should target Seattle's opponents in these scenarios, particularly when the spread exceeds a touchdown. This trend carries the most weight in divisional games and primetime contests where emotional stakes run highest.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Seattle Seahawks's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Seattle Seahawks have a 2-8-0 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents a poor 20% ATS win rate in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Seattle Seahawks as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Seattle Seahawks as home favorites after a loss has been unprofitable with a -61.8% ROI. This trend shows consistent losses for bettors over the 10-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the typical league average, which generally hovers around 50% ATS for most situational trends. The Seahawks' 20% win rate in this spot represents a notable negative trend.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.