The public often underestimates the San Francisco 49ers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the San Francisco 49ers hold a record of 14-1-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +78.2% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $12 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record14-1-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size15 games
ROI+78.2%
Units Won+11.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-0-00.0%+90.9%
20161-0-00.0%+90.9%
20171-0-00.0%+90.9%
20182-1-00.0%+27.3%
20193-0-00.0%+90.9%
20201-0-00.0%+90.9%
20231-0-00.0%+90.9%
20243-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The San Francisco 49ers' exceptional performance as large underdogs stems from their organizational culture of resilience and their ability to elevate their game when expectations are lowest. Under Kyle Shanahan's system, the 49ers have consistently demonstrated superior preparation and tactical flexibility, particularly when facing elite opponents where the point spread reflects perceived talent gaps rather than actual matchup dynamics. San Francisco's success in these spots often comes from their defensive identity and ability to control game tempo. When installed as heavy underdogs, the 49ers typically face high-powered offenses, but their defensive scheme under DeMeco Ryans has proven adept at creating turnovers and limiting explosive plays. The team's offensive versatility, featuring multiple skill position threats and creative play-calling, allows them to exploit defensive adjustments that opponents make when expecting to dominate. The psychological element cannot be overlooked - this franchise thrives with a "nobody believes in us" mentality, and large spreads often indicate games where the 49ers are written off due to injuries, road conditions, or opponent reputation rather than actual game-flow advantages. This trend carries the most weight in primetime games or playoff scenarios where motivation peaks and the 49ers' veteran leadership can maximize their underdog status against overconfident opponents.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the San Francisco 49ers's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?

The San Francisco 49ers have an outstanding 14-1-0 ATS record when they are large underdogs of +7.5 points or more from 2014-2024. This represents a 93.3% ATS win rate in these situations.

Is betting on the San Francisco 49ers as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?

Yes, betting on the 49ers as large underdogs has been extremely profitable with a 78.2% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite going 0-15 straight up in these games, they have consistently covered the spread at an elite rate.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly above league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS as large underdogs. The 49ers' 93.3% ATS rate in this spot represents one of the strongest betting trends in the NFL over this timeframe.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.