Zach Wilson's passing yards props show a perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under record across his last 10 games, with his 196.1 yard average sitting just 3.0 yards above typical lines. The marginal edge and negative ROI on both sides signal a coin-flip market with no clear advantage.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's passing yards performance reveals a quarterback operating in a tightly controlled offensive system that produces remarkably consistent results around the 195-yard threshold. His 196.1 yard average against 193.1 yard lines suggests oddsmakers have found the sweet spot, creating a market where variance rather than skill edge determines outcomes. The 5-5 split indicates Wilson lacks the explosive ceiling games that create profitable over opportunities, while his floor remains stable enough to avoid consistent under cashes. Denver's conservative offensive approach under Sean Payton has neutered Wilson's upside potential, keeping him in a narrow band that makes props essentially random. The -4.5% ROI on both sides confirms this is a break-even market where juice eats into any marginal edge. Wilson's current one-game under streak following previous patterns of alternating results suggests no momentum-based angles exist. Without meaningful split data showing game script, matchup, or situational edges, this becomes purely a numbers game where the house edge through vigorish makes consistent profit unlikely. The lack of significant deviation from his season-long patterns indicates this trend reflects Wilson's actual talent level rather than temporary variance that might correct.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence on any systematic approach. Wilson's passing yards props represent a perfectly efficient market where his 196.1 yard average barely exceeds typical 193.1 yard lines, creating no meaningful edge despite the slight positive differential. The balanced 5-5 record and negative ROI on both sides indicate oddsmakers have accurately priced his range, making this a break-even proposition where vigorish eliminates any marginal advantage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 177.5 | 26.0 | -151.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 182.5 | 301.0 | +118.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 206.5 | 81.0 | -125.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 200.5 | 263.0 | +62.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 214.5 | 263.0 | +48.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 192.5 | 240.0 | +47.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 199.5 | 186.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 207.5 | 199.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 173.5 | 245.0 | +71.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 176.5 | 157.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Wilson's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Wilson has gone 5-5 on passing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with an average of 196.1 yards against typical lines of 193.1 yards, showing perfectly balanced results.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Wilson Passing Yards last 10 games?
Pass on Wilson's passing yards props. The 5-5 record and negative ROI on both sides indicate an efficiently priced market where the house edge eliminates any meaningful advantage for systematic betting.
What's Zach Wilson's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Wilson averages 196.1 passing yards over his last 10 games, just 3.0 yards above the typical 193.1 yard line, indicating oddsmakers have accurately identified his performance range with minimal edge.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid systematic betting on Wilson's passing yards props. The balanced results and negative ROI suggest waiting for specific game script advantages or significant line movement rather than following trends.