Zach Wilson's passing yards props have hit unders at a 54.5% rate across 11 games, with his 193.73 yard average barely exceeding the typical 192.41 line. The -13.2% ROI on overs versus +4.1% on unders signals clear value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's passing yards trend reflects the fundamental limitations of a developing quarterback operating within conservative offensive systems. His 193.73 yard average sits just 1.3 yards above typical lines, indicating oddsmakers have accurately priced his ceiling. The 45.5% over rate isn't catastrophically low, but the ROI disparity tells the real story—overs have burned money at a -13.2% clip while unders generated modest 4.1% profits. This pattern suggests Wilson faces consistent structural headwinds: limited arm talent, risk-averse play-calling, and game scripts that don't demand high-volume passing. The sample spans his 2023 Jets tenure, capturing him in a system designed to minimize mistakes rather than maximize yardage. Wilson's inconsistency creates betting opportunities, but the data clearly favors the under side. His longest over streak reached just three games, while unders have shown more persistence. The narrow average-to-line differential indicates he rarely explodes for massive yardage totals that would skew the numbers upward. Instead, Wilson operates in a tight band around his median output, making unders the statistically superior play when lines reflect his season average.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's 54.5% under rate combined with positive under ROI creates a sustainable edge against inflated lines. The 1.3 yard average-to-line differential is minimal, but consistent enough to generate profit. Target unders when lines exceed 195 yards, particularly in games where Denver projects to control pace or face strong pass defenses.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 177.5 | 26.0 | -151.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 182.5 | 301.0 | +118.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 206.5 | 81.0 | -125.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 200.5 | 263.0 | +62.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 214.5 | 263.0 | +48.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 192.5 | 240.0 | +47.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 199.5 | 186.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 207.5 | 199.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 173.5 | 245.0 | +71.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 176.5 | 157.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 185.5 | 170.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Wilson's Passing Yards prop record all games?
Wilson's passing yards props went 5-6-0 over/under across 11 games in 2023, hitting unders 54.5% of the time. His 193.73 yard average barely exceeded the 192.41 average line, creating a narrow 1.3 yard differential that favored under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Wilson Passing Yards all games?
Lean under on Wilson's passing yards props. The 54.5% under rate combined with +4.1% under ROI versus -13.2% over ROI creates a clear statistical edge. Target unders when lines exceed 195 yards for maximum value.
What's Zach Wilson's average Passing Yards all games?
Wilson averaged 193.73 passing yards per game compared to average lines of 192.41 yards. This minimal 1.3 yard differential indicates oddsmakers priced his props accurately, with slight inflation that created under value throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson passing yards unders when lines exceed 195 yards, particularly against strong pass defenses or in games where Denver projects to control tempo. His conservative system and limited ceiling make inflated lines profitable under opportunities.