Zach Charbonnet's rushing yards props present a slightly bearish profile with just 48.0% overs across 25 games and a concerning -8.4% ROI on overs. While his 34.68 average beats the 33.06 line by 1.6 yards, the poor over ROI suggests books are pricing him efficiently. Lean under on standard lines.
Expert Analysis
The Charbonnet rushing yards data reveals a classic case of oddsmakers staying ahead of the public. Despite averaging 34.68 yards against a 33.06 line—a seemingly positive 1.6-yard differential—the brutal -8.4% ROI on overs tells the real story. This suggests Seattle's backfield volatility creates inflated expectations that books capitalize on. Charbonnet's role as Kenneth Walker's backup means his production heavily depends on game script, injury situations, and garbage time opportunities. The 12-13 over-under split indicates near-perfect market efficiency, but the ROI disparity shows overs consistently disappoint relative to their juice. His moderate streak patterns (longest runs of just 3) suggest no persistent momentum in either direction. The lack of meaningful splits data actually works against over bettors, as it prevents identifying favorable spots where Charbonnet might exceed expectations. In Seattle's run-heavy system, when Charbonnet does get opportunities, defenses are often prepared for ground attacks. The absence of recent form trends indicates steady, predictable usage patterns that books price accurately. This creates a market where unders provide better value despite the slight average differential favoring overs.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -8.4% ROI on overs despite a positive yards differential indicates systematic overvaluation of Charbonnet's rushing props. Books appear to inflate lines based on his backup role upside while the reality shows more consistent modest production. Target unders when lines exceed 35 yards, especially in games where Seattle projects to trail and abandon the ground game early.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 53.5 | 59.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 68.5 | 57.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 18.5 | -1.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 62.5 | 54.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 65.5 | 134.0 | +68.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 13.5 | 28.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 15.5 | 22.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 11.5 | 3.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 19.5 | 8.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 17.5 | 4.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 20.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 19.5 | 11.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 66.5 | 91.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 59.5 | 38.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 25.5 | 12.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Charbonnet's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Zach Charbonnet has gone over his rushing yards prop in 12 of 25 games (48.0%) with a 12-13-0 record. His overs have produced a -8.4% ROI while unders show a much better -0.7% return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Charbonnet Rushing Yards all games?
Lean under on Charbonnet's rushing yards props. Despite averaging 1.6 yards above his typical line, the -8.4% ROI on overs indicates books consistently overprice his upside potential as Seattle's backup running back.
What's Zach Charbonnet's average Rushing Yards all games?
Charbonnet averages 34.68 rushing yards per game against an average line of 33.06 yards, creating a positive 1.6-yard differential. However, this modest edge hasn't translated to profitable over betting due to juice and timing factors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Charbonnet rushing yards unders when lines exceed 35 yards or when Seattle projects to trail early and abandon the run. His backup role creates inconsistent volume that books often overprice in favorable matchups.