Zach Charbonnet's home reception props present a neutral betting landscape with a perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under record and matching -4.5% ROI on both sides. The Seahawks running back averages 2.1 receptions at home against a typical 2.5 line, creating a consistent 0.4-reception gap that favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Charbonnet's home reception data reveals a remarkably consistent pattern that slightly favors unders, driven primarily by Seattle's offensive philosophy at Lumen Field. The 2.1 average against 2.5 lines suggests oddsmakers are pricing in more passing game involvement than Charbonnet typically receives in home environments. This 0.4-reception differential isn't massive, but it's persistent enough to create value over a 10-game sample. The current three-game under streak aligns with this underlying trend, as Seattle's home game scripts have leaned more heavily on traditional rushing rather than dump-offs to the backfield. What makes this particularly interesting is the lack of extreme variance—Charbonnet's home reception totals cluster tightly around that 2.1 average, indicating this isn't a boom-or-bust situation but rather a steady pattern. The equal ROI on both sides (-4.5%) suggests the market has been efficient at this number, but the slight under bias in both average and recent form creates a marginal edge. Without significant injury concerns or dramatic role changes, this trend appears sustainable given Seattle's conservative home offensive approach and Charbonnet's defined role in the passing game.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.4-reception gap between Charbonnet's 2.1 home average and typical 2.5 lines creates consistent value, supported by the current three-game under streak. Target this when lines sit at 2.5 or higher, particularly in games where Seattle projects to control pace at home. The main risk is a blowout scenario forcing more passing volume, but Charbonnet's role remains secondary in catch-up situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Charbonnet's Receptions prop record home games?
Charbonnet holds a 5-5 over/under record on reception props in home games with equal -4.5% ROI on both sides. He's currently riding a three-game under streak with his longest over streak reaching just two games this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Charbonnet Receptions home games?
Lean under on Charbonnet's home reception props. His 2.1 average sits 0.4 receptions below typical 2.5 lines, and Seattle's conservative home approach limits his passing game involvement compared to road environments where they chase points.
What's Zach Charbonnet's average Receptions home games?
Charbonnet averages 2.1 receptions in home games, sitting 0.4 catches below the standard 2.5 line. This consistent gap creates modest but reliable value on the under, particularly when lines reach 2.5 or higher.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Charbonnet reception unders when Seattle plays at home with lines at 2.5+, especially in games with low totals where they'll control pace. Avoid in potential blowout losses where garbage time passing could inflate his targets.