Charbonnet's receiving yards props have been a coin flip over his last 10 games, going 5-5-0 with a concerning -2.9 yard average shortfall versus the typical 14.9 line. The negative ROI on both sides signals market efficiency, but his current 2-game under streak suggests potential regression upward.
Expert Analysis
The 50% over rate masks a more troubling reality for Charbonnet's receiving production. His 12.0-yard average falls significantly short of the 14.9-yard line the market typically sets, creating a -2.9 differential that explains the negative ROI on both sides. This isn't random variance—it's systematic underperformance in the passing game. Seattle's offensive philosophy appears to limit Charbonnet's receiving opportunities, likely reserving him primarily for between-the-tackles work while utilizing other backs or receivers in obvious passing situations. The current 2-game under streak follows his longest over streak of 3 games, suggesting the market may still be overvaluing his receiving upside based on occasional outlier performances. Without clear splits data showing favorable matchup conditions, the consistency of his underperformance becomes the dominant factor. The -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates sharp money has already identified this inefficiency, making future edges harder to find. Charbonnet's receiving role appears more limited than oddsmakers consistently price, creating a structural advantage for under bettors despite the even split record.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -2.9 yard differential versus market expectations creates a systematic edge despite the 50% over rate. Charbonnet's receiving role remains more limited than oddsmakers price, evidenced by consistent shortfalls. Target unders when lines exceed 15 yards, especially in games where Seattle projects to control pace and limit passing down opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 18.5 | 0.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 23.5 | 19.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 14.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 29.5 | 12.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 7.5 | 13.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 10.5 | 0.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 10.5 | 2.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 25.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 20.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Charbonnet's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Charbonnet has gone 5-5-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with a -4.5% ROI on both sides, indicating market efficiency despite the even split.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Charbonnet Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Charbonnet receiving yards props. His 12.0-yard average falls 2.9 yards short of typical 14.9 lines, creating a systematic edge for under bettors despite the 50% over rate.
What's Zach Charbonnet's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Charbonnet averages 12.0 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to the typical 14.9-yard market line, creating a significant -2.9 yard shortfall that favors under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Charbonnet receiving yards unders when lines exceed 15 yards, particularly in games where Seattle projects to control pace and limit passing situations that would increase his receiving opportunities.