Zach Charbonnet's receiving yards prop in conference games presents a marginal edge with 7-6-0 over record (53.8% hit rate). The +2.8% ROI on overs versus -11.9% on unders suggests slight value, though the razor-thin 0.04-yard average differential demands selective targeting.
Expert Analysis
Charbonnet's receiving yards production in conference games reveals a nuanced betting opportunity masked by seemingly balanced numbers. The 53.8% over rate paired with a +2.8% ROI on overs tells a story of modest but consistent value, while the brutal -11.9% ROI on unders suggests books are pricing this prop efficiently. The 15.77 average against a 15.73 line creates virtually no mathematical edge, making game script and matchup context paramount. Seattle's conference opponents have likely forced more pass-heavy game scripts, naturally elevating Charbonnet's receiving usage as Kenneth Walker III handles early-down work. The current two-game under streak aligns with regression expectations after a four-game over streak earlier in the sample. Conference games often feature tighter spreads and more competitive environments, potentially creating the check-down opportunities that fuel Charbonnet's receiving production. However, the narrow sample size of 13 games and minimal average differential suggest this trend lacks the stability for aggressive betting. The positive over ROI indicates when Charbonnet exceeds his receiving line in conference play, he tends to exceed it meaningfully, while under performances stay closer to the number.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +2.8% ROI on overs combined with the historically poor under performance (-11.9% ROI) creates a subtle but meaningful edge. Target conference games where Seattle faces competitive spreads or strong run defenses that could force more passing situations. The primary risk lies in the minimal average differential, making this a volume-dependent play rather than a ceiling-based bet.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 18.5 | 0.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 23.5 | 19.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 14.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 29.5 | 12.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 10.5 | 0.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 10.5 | 2.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 25.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 13.5 | 28.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 18.5 | 39.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 19.5 | 11.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 10.5 | 22.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 18.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Charbonnet's Receiving Yards prop record conference games?
Charbonnet has gone over his receiving yards prop in 7 of 13 conference games (53.8% hit rate) with a 7-6-0 record. His average of 15.77 yards barely exceeds the typical 15.73 line, creating minimal mathematical edge.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Charbonnet Receiving Yards conference games?
Lean over on Charbonnet's receiving yards in conference games. The +2.8% ROI on overs versus -11.9% on unders shows clear directional value, especially in competitive game scripts where Seattle needs passing game contributions from their backup running back.
What's Zach Charbonnet's average Receiving Yards conference games?
Charbonnet averages 15.77 receiving yards in conference games against a typical line of 15.73 yards. This microscopic 0.04-yard edge means game script and matchup context become crucial factors rather than relying on raw averages alone.
How reliable is this trend?
Target conference games where Seattle faces competitive spreads or strong run defenses. The +2.8% over ROI suggests books underprice his ceiling in division/conference matchups where game scripts demand more diverse offensive approaches including check-down opportunities.