Xavier Worthy has been an absolute over machine, hitting the receiving yards over in 9 of his last 10 games with a staggering 90% success rate. His 67.9-yard average crushes typical lines by 26.1 yards, generating +71.8% ROI. This trend screams continued over value.
Expert Analysis
Xavier Worthy's receiving yards explosion reflects Kansas City's evolving offensive identity and his rapidly expanding role. The 67.9-yard average against a 41.8-yard baseline suggests oddsmakers are consistently undervaluing his involvement in an offense that's discovered his big-play ability. This isn't just volume inflation—Worthy is averaging 26.1 yards above expectations, indicating genuine skill-based production rather than garbage-time padding. The Chiefs' championship-caliber offense creates multiple high-leverage situations where Worthy's speed becomes a matchup weapon, particularly against defenses focused on containing Travis Kelce and other established threats. His 90% over rate across 10 games represents statistical significance that transcends small-sample noise. The current 7-game over streak demonstrates consistent usage patterns that have become integral to Kansas City's game planning. However, the 71.8% ROI suggests the market may be slow to adjust, creating continued value gaps. The primary regression risk lies in defensive adjustments specifically targeting Worthy or potential workload management as Kansas City secures playoff positioning, but his role appears too embedded in their offensive success to dramatically diminish.
Betting Verdict
OVER with HIGH confidence. Xavier Worthy's 90% over rate and 26.1-yard differential above typical lines represents one of the strongest receiving yards trends in the NFL. The Chiefs have clearly identified him as a consistent offensive weapon, and oddsmakers remain behind the curve in pricing his expanding role. Target overs when lines remain in the low-40s range, as his floor appears significantly higher than market perception.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 55.5 | 157.0 | +101.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 51.5 | 85.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 53.5 | 45.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 50.5 | 79.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 39.5 | 65.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 39.5 | 46.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 36.5 | 41.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 36.5 | 54.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 32.5 | 46.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 22.5 | 61.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Xavier Worthy's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Xavier Worthy has gone over his receiving yards prop in 9 of his last 10 games, posting a dominant 90% over rate. His lone under came early in this stretch, with his current 7-game over streak representing his longest sustained success.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Xavier Worthy Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the over on Xavier Worthy's receiving yards with high confidence. His 90% success rate, 26.1-yard average differential above lines, and 71.8% ROI make this one of the strongest over trends in the NFL right now.
What's Xavier Worthy's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Xavier Worthy is averaging 67.9 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to typical betting lines around 41.8 yards. This massive 26.1-yard differential shows oddsmakers are consistently undervaluing his production in Kansas City's offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Xavier Worthy receiving yards overs when lines remain in the low-40s range, particularly in high-scoring game environments. His role appears most secure in competitive games where Kansas City needs his big-play ability to stretch defenses.