Will Levis rushing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% over rate across his last 10 games with a brutal -2.1 yard differential below the typical 16.0 line. Currently riding a four-game under streak, this trend shows clear value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Levis's limited mobility in the NFL. Averaging just 13.9 rushing yards against lines typically set around 16.0, he's consistently falling short of oddsmakers' expectations by meaningful margins. This isn't a small sample fluke—it's a 10-game pattern that reflects the reality of his pocket-passing style and Tennessee's offensive philosophy. The Titans have shown little inclination to design rushing opportunities for Levis, preferring to keep him in the pocket where his arm talent can shine. Unlike dual-threat quarterbacks who can manufacture yards with scrambles, Levis's rushing production comes almost entirely from broken plays and necessary scrambles. The four-game under streak isn't coincidental—it's the market slowly adjusting to his true rushing floor. Tennessee's offensive line struggles have actually worked against rushing production, as Levis is more likely to throw the ball away under pressure than take off running. The -23.6% ROI on overs tells the complete story of a prop that's been consistently mispriced. With limited designed runs and a natural tendency to stay in the pocket, Levis represents the type of quarterback whose rushing props consistently offer value on the under side.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 40% over rate and -2.1 yard differential create clear mathematical value on under bets. Target this prop when lines remain at 15.5 or higher, particularly in games where Tennessee is favored and likely to control pace through the passing game. Main risk is a potential blowout loss forcing garbage time scrambles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 17.5 | 0.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 19.5 | 3.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 19.5 | -3.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 24.5 | 10.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 15.5 | 18.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 11.5 | 41.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 11.5 | 15.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 15.5 | 5.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 11.5 | 38.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Will Levis props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Levis's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Will Levis has gone over his rushing yards prop just 4 times in his last 10 games (40% over rate), producing a 4-6 over/under record. He's averaging 13.9 rushing yards per game against typical lines of 16.0 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Levis Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Will Levis rushing yards props. The 40% over rate and -2.1 yard differential below lines create consistent value, especially when props are set at 15.5 yards or higher in favorable game scripts.
What's Will Levis's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Will Levis averages 13.9 rushing yards over his last 10 games, falling 2.1 yards short of the typical 16.0 yard line. This consistent underperformance has produced strong under value with +14.6% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Levis rushing unders when lines are 15.5+ yards and Tennessee is favored or in close games. Avoid when the Titans are heavy underdogs, as potential blowout losses could force late-game scrambling attempts.