Will Levis has been a brutal rushing yards over bet in conference games, hitting just 30% with a devastating -42.7% ROI. The quarterback averages 11.6 rushing yards against lines of 13.9, creating a consistent 2.3-yard shortfall that makes the under a compelling play.
Expert Analysis
Will Levis's rushing yard struggles in conference games stem from the Titans' offensive philosophy and his role within it. The 11.6 average against 13.9 lines reveals a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and reality. Conference opponents have better film study and preparation time, leading to more disciplined rush lane assignments that limit scrambling opportunities. The Titans have emphasized pocket passing development for Levis, reducing designed runs that inflated his college numbers. His 30% over rate across 10 games isn't a small sample fluke – it represents a systematic underperformance. The current three-game under streak aligns with this pattern, as defensive coordinators have identified his tendencies. Unlike mobile quarterbacks who create rushing yards through improvisation, Levis generates most of his ground production through short-yardage situations and broken plays. Conference teams have neutralized these opportunities through better coverage and pass rush coordination. The -2.3 differential per game compounds quickly, making this one of the more reliable under trends in quarterback props. Regression seems unlikely given the underlying tactical reasons driving this performance.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 30% over rate and -2.3 yard differential per game create a sustainable edge that conference preparation reinforces. Target this under when Levis faces divisional opponents or teams coming off their bye week, as enhanced game planning amplifies the trend. The main risk is garbage time scrambles in blowout losses, but the Titans' competitive games limit this exposure.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 17.5 | 0.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 19.5 | 3.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 24.5 | 10.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 11.5 | 41.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 11.5 | 15.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 15.5 | 5.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 11.5 | 38.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 8.5 | 2.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 10.5 | 2.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Levis's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
Will Levis has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 3 of 10 conference games (30%), with 7 unders. He's currently on a three-game under streak, his longest of the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Levis Rushing Yards conference games?
Bet the under on Will Levis rushing yards in conference games. The 30% over rate and -42.7% ROI on overs creates a clear edge, especially with his 2.3-yard average shortfall per game.
What's Will Levis's average Rushing Yards conference games?
Will Levis averages 11.6 rushing yards in conference games against betting lines averaging 13.9 yards, creating a consistent 2.3-yard deficit that drives the strong under performance across 10 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Levis rushing yards unders against divisional opponents and teams coming off bye weeks, when enhanced preparation limits his scrambling opportunities. Avoid in potential blowout losses where garbage time inflates numbers.