Will Levis has been a disaster for passing yards overs in conference games, hitting just 4 of 13 attempts (30.8%) while averaging 169.85 yards against lines around 203.88. With a brutal -34.0 yard differential and +32.2% ROI on unders, this screams systematic fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a quarterback consistently overvalued by oddsmakers in conference play. Levis's 169.85 yard average represents a staggering 34-point gap below typical closing lines, suggesting books haven't properly adjusted for his limitations against familiar divisional opponents who've had multiple looks at Tennessee's offensive tendencies. The 30.8% over rate across 13 games isn't random variance—it's systematic underperformance rooted in the Titans' conservative offensive approach and Levis's inconsistent arm talent. Conference games often feature tighter defensive gameplans, shorter fields due to turnovers, and more conservative playcalling as coaches prioritize ball security over explosive passing plays. The current two-game under streak extends what was previously a six-game under run, indicating this isn't just early-career struggles but a persistent pattern. The +32.2% ROI on unders demonstrates real betting value, while the -41.3% loss rate on overs shows the market's continued overestimation. With limited receiving weapons and an offensive line that forces quick decisions, Levis simply lacks the tools to consistently reach inflated passing yard totals that work for more established quarterbacks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 34-yard average deficit and 70% under rate create legitimate betting value, especially when books set lines above 200 yards. Target spots where Levis faces divisional opponents with strong pass defenses or when Tennessee is expected to control clock with their ground game. Main risk is garbage time production if the Titans fall behind early and abandon their conservative approach.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 214.5 | 89.0 | -125.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 216.5 | 168.0 | -48.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 188.5 | 278.0 | +89.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 184.5 | 175.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 201.5 | 95.0 | -106.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 195.5 | 25.0 | -170.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 195.5 | 192.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 217.5 | 16.0 | -201.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 203.5 | 199.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 205.5 | 327.0 | +121.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 210.5 | 224.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 212.5 | 158.0 | -54.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 204.5 | 262.0 | +57.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Levis's Passing Yards prop record conference games?
Will Levis is 4-9-0 on passing yards overs in conference games (30.8% hit rate). He's averaging 169.85 yards against typical lines around 203.88, creating a massive 34-yard negative differential that consistently rewards under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Levis Passing Yards conference games?
Bet under on Will Levis passing yards in conference games. The 70% under rate and +32.2% ROI provide clear value, especially when lines exceed 200 yards. His conservative offense and limited weapons create systematic underperformance.
What's Will Levis's average Passing Yards conference games?
Will Levis averages 169.85 passing yards in conference games, which is 34 yards below typical closing lines around 203.88. This massive gap represents one of the most exploitable quarterback trends in the market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Levis unders when facing divisional opponents with strong pass defenses or when Tennessee is favored and likely to run clock. Avoid when the Titans are large underdogs and may need to throw extensively.