Will Levis has been a touchdown drought machine in conference games, hitting the over just 36.4% of the time with a brutal 4-7-0 record. Averaging 0.82 passing touchdowns against a 1.14 line creates consistent value on unders with +21.5% ROI. This is a clear fade-the-over situation.
Expert Analysis
Will Levis's passing touchdown struggles in conference games reveal a quarterback still finding his footing against familiar divisional defenses that have extensive film on his tendencies. The 0.82 average against a 1.14 line represents a significant 28% gap that suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limitations in these matchups. Conference games typically feature tighter defensive schemes as teams know each other intimately, and Levis appears particularly vulnerable to this familiarity. The Titans' offensive system under different coordinators has failed to maximize red zone efficiency, with Levis often settling for field goals rather than finding the end zone. His current two-game under streak fits the broader pattern of inconsistent touchdown production. The -30.6% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market has overvalued his touchdown potential in these divisional battles. With Tennessee's offensive line struggles and limited receiving weapons, Levis faces structural challenges that make multiple touchdown games rare occurrences. The three-game under streak earlier in the sample shows this isn't just recent poor form but a persistent issue throughout his conference game sample.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.32 touchdown deficit per game creates legitimate value, especially with the +21.5% under ROI proving sustainable profits. Target this play when Levis faces strong conference defenses or in games with lower totals. The main risk is a breakout performance against a weakened divisional opponent, but the sample size and consistency suggest betting unders remains profitable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Levis's Passing TDs prop record conference games?
Will Levis has gone 4-7-0 on passing touchdown overs in conference games, hitting just 36.4% of the time. He averages 0.82 touchdowns per game against a typical 1.14 line, creating consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Levis Passing TDs conference games?
Bet under on Will Levis passing touchdowns in conference games. The 0.32 touchdown deficit per game and +21.5% under ROI make this a profitable fade with strong sample size backing.
What's Will Levis's average Passing TDs conference games?
Will Levis averages 0.82 passing touchdowns in conference games compared to the typical 1.14 line. This 0.32 touchdown gap represents a 28% value differential consistently favoring under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Levis passing touchdown unders against strong conference defenses or in lower-total games. Divisional matchups where opponents have extensive film study create the most reliable under opportunities.