Will Levis has gone under his passing touchdown total in 58.8% of games, hitting just 7 overs in 17 contests with a brutal -0.3 differential from the line. The Titans quarterback averages 0.88 passing touchdowns against a 1.15 line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Will Levis's touchdown production reflects the harsh reality of playing quarterback for a dysfunctional Titans offense. His 0.88 average against a 1.15 line isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance rooted in Tennessee's offensive limitations. The Titans rank among the league's worst in red zone efficiency and scoring, often stalling in plus territory where other teams cash touchdowns. Levis compounds these issues with inconsistent decision-making and a tendency toward interceptions in crucial situations. His 41.2% over rate across 17 games represents a large enough sample to trust, especially considering the underlying factors haven't improved. The -21.4% ROI on overs tells the story of a betting market that consistently overvalues Levis's touchdown upside. While regression is always possible, the structural problems with Tennessee's offense—poor offensive line play, limited weapons, and questionable play-calling—suggest this trend has staying power. The current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, and until the Titans address their red zone woes, Levis will continue struggling to reach inflated touchdown totals that assume competent offensive execution.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.8% under rate combined with a -0.3 differential creates legitimate value, particularly when the line sits at 1.5 touchdowns. Levis and the Titans offense lack the red zone reliability to consistently hit these totals. The main risk is a potential breakout game against a terrible defense, but Tennessee's systemic issues make the under the smart play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Levis's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Will Levis has gone 7-10 on passing touchdown overs across 17 games, hitting just 41.2% of his totals. He averages 0.88 passing touchdowns per game against an average line of 1.15, creating a -0.3 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Levis Passing TDs all games?
Bet the under on Will Levis passing touchdowns. His 58.8% under rate and -0.3 average differential show clear value, especially when the line is 1.5 touchdowns. The Titans' red zone struggles make this a systematic edge rather than random variance.
What's Will Levis's average Passing TDs all games?
Will Levis averages 0.88 passing touchdowns per game compared to his average line of 1.15, creating a significant -0.3 differential. This gap reflects Tennessee's offensive limitations and Levis's inconsistent red zone execution, making unders the profitable long-term play.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Levis passing touchdown unders when the line is set at 1.5 or higher, particularly against competent defenses. His struggles are most pronounced in road games and divisional matchups where defensive preparation limits Tennessee's already-limited red zone options.