Will Dissly has been a consistent under performer in receptions, hitting just 40% of overs across his last 10 games with a -23.6% ROI on over bets. Despite averaging 3.7 receptions against a 3.4 line, the under trend shows strong persistence with +14.6% ROI. Lean Under.
Expert Analysis
Will Dissly's reception trends reveal a fascinating disconnect between raw production and betting value. While his 3.7 average receptions slightly exceed the typical 3.4 line, the 4-6-0 over/under record tells a more nuanced story about market inefficiency. The Chargers' offensive evolution under Jim Harbaugh has fundamentally altered tight end usage patterns, with Dissly functioning more as a blocking specialist than the primary receiving target many bettors expect. His role variance creates significant game-to-game volatility, but the underlying trend strongly favors unders due to Los Angeles' ground-heavy approach and preference for spreading targets among multiple receivers. The -23.6% ROI on overs isn't just bad luck—it reflects systematic overvaluation of Dissly's receiving role in this offense. His current streak of one under follows a pattern of clustering, with his longest under streak reaching four games earlier this season. The market continues to price Dissly based on traditional tight end expectations rather than his actual deployment in the Chargers' run-first system, creating persistent value on the under despite his decent raw averages.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 40% over rate combined with +14.6% under ROI indicates systematic market overvaluation of Dissly's receiving role in the Chargers' ground-heavy offense. Target unders when lines sit at 3.5 or higher, particularly in games where Los Angeles projects to control pace through their rushing attack. Main risk is garbage time production in blowout losses inflating his numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receptions Prop Lines
Compare Will Dissly props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Dissly's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Will Dissly has gone 4-6-0 on reception overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. This translates to a brutal -23.6% ROI for over bettors while under bets have generated a solid +14.6% return during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Dissly Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on Will Dissly's receptions. The 40% over rate and +14.6% under ROI indicate the market consistently overvalues his receiving role in the Chargers' run-heavy offense. Target lines of 3.5+ for maximum value on under bets.
What's Will Dissly's average Receptions last 10 games?
Will Dissly averages 3.7 receptions over his last 10 games, which runs 0.3 above the typical 3.4 line. However, this modest edge hasn't translated to over betting success, with unders still providing superior value at +14.6% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Dissly reception unders when lines are set at 3.5 or higher, especially in games where the Chargers project to control tempo through their ground game. Avoid in potential shootouts where garbage time could inflate his numbers.