Will Dissly's reception props show modest value on the over side, hitting 53.3% of the time across 15 games with a slight positive differential of +0.5 receptions above his typical 2.83 line. The tight end averages 3.33 receptions per game, creating a lean over opportunity despite marginal ROI.
Expert Analysis
Will Dissly's reception trends reflect the evolving role of tight ends in modern offenses, where consistent short-area targets create steady floor production. His 3.33 reception average against a 2.83 line suggests books are slightly undervaluing his involvement in the Chargers' passing attack. The 53.3% over rate indicates a sustainable edge rather than random variance, particularly given tight ends' reliability in intermediate routes and red zone packages. Dissly's production stems from his role as a safety valve and chain-mover, making him less volatile than deep threats but more predictable for betting purposes. The modest +1.8% ROI on overs suggests the market has adjusted somewhat, but inefficiencies remain. His recent under streak of just one game following a five-game over run demonstrates the choppy nature of weekly variance while the underlying usage patterns stay consistent. The lack of dramatic splits suggests Dissly's role remains relatively stable across different game scripts, though this also means fewer obvious spots to exploit. Risk factors include the Chargers' evolving offensive identity and potential target competition from other pass-catchers, but his fundamental role as a possession receiver provides a decent foundation for over betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Dissly's 3.33 reception average creates consistent value against his typical 2.83 line, supported by a 53.3% over rate that suggests genuine edge rather than variance. The tight end's role as a reliable chain-mover in the Chargers offense provides steady target volume. Main risk is the modest sample size and evolving offensive schemes that could reduce his involvement.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Dissly's Receptions prop record all games?
Will Dissly has gone over his receptions prop in 8 of 15 games (53.3%) with 7 unders. His average of 3.33 receptions per game sits 0.5 above his typical 2.83 line, showing consistent value on the over side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Dissly Receptions all games?
Lean over on Will Dissly's receptions props. His 3.33 average beats the typical 2.83 line by half a reception, with overs hitting 53.3% of the time. The edge is modest but consistent for his role.
What's Will Dissly's average Receptions all games?
Will Dissly averages 3.33 receptions per game across 15 contests. This sits 0.5 receptions above his typical 2.83 prop line, creating consistent value for over bettors despite the modest differential.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Dissly reception overs when his line sits at 2.5 or lower, maximizing the value from his 3.33 average. His consistent role as a chain-mover makes him less game-script dependent than other positions.