Tyreek Hill's receiving yards props present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 44.1% overs across 34 games with a -15.8% ROI on the over side. Despite averaging 82.94 yards against a 79.12 line, the consistent under performance suggests systematic line inflation. Lean Under with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
The market continues to overvalue Tyreek Hill's receiving yards production, creating a sustainable edge on the under. While Hill averages 82.94 yards against a typical 79.12 line—a modest 3.8-yard positive differential—his over rate of just 44.1% across 34 games reveals the deeper story. This isn't about Hill declining; it's about oddsmakers consistently setting lines that reflect his explosive ceiling rather than his realistic floor. The -15.8% ROI on overs versus +6.7% on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency. Hill's game-to-game volatility works against over bettors, as his boom-or-bust nature means even elite averages can hide frequent disappointments. The Dolphins' offensive evolution, increased target competition, and defensive game scripts all contribute to this trend's persistence. Hill's recent streak patterns show balance—longest over and under streaks both capped at three games—suggesting the market hasn't corrected this pricing error. The key insight isn't that Hill is bad, but that his props consistently price in his 150-yard upside while ignoring his 50-yard downside, creating systematic value on unders.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 44.1% over rate combined with negative ROI on overs indicates persistent line inflation that the market hasn't corrected. Hill's volatility and the Dolphins' evolving offensive dynamics support continued under value. Primary risk is Hill's explosive ceiling in favorable matchups, but the data suggests betting unders consistently profits from overpriced expectations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 51.5 | 20.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 41.5 | 105.0 | +63.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 69.5 | 29.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 71.5 | 36.0 | -35.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 62.5 | 115.0 | +52.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 63.5 | 83.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 64.5 | 48.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 69.5 | 61.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 75.5 | 16.0 | -59.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 76.5 | 80.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 82.5 | 72.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 57.5 | 8.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 47.5 | 69.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 51.5 | 23.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 62.5 | 40.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyreek Hill's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Tyreek Hill has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 15 of 34 games (44.1%) since September 2023. This 15-19-0 record demonstrates consistent under performance despite his elite talent and reputation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Tyreek Hill's receiving yards props. The 44.1% over rate and -15.8% ROI on overs shows the market consistently overprices his props, creating sustainable value on unders.
What's Tyreek Hill's average Receiving Yards all games?
Hill averages 82.94 receiving yards against a typical 79.12 line, a positive 3.8-yard differential. However, this modest edge doesn't overcome the frequency of under results and negative over ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Focus on under bets when Hill's line exceeds 80 yards, as the market tends to overprice his ceiling. Avoid overs entirely given the negative ROI, regardless of matchup or game script.