Tyler Lockett's reception props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over rate across his last 10 games with a devastating -1.0 average differential. The Seahawks receiver is averaging only 1.9 receptions against a typical 2.9 line, creating consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Lockett's dramatic underperformance in reception volume reflects Seattle's offensive evolution and his changing role within the system. The veteran receiver is averaging a full reception below market expectations, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his diminished target share. This isn't a temporary slump—it represents a fundamental shift in how Seattle deploys Lockett, likely emphasizing his big-play ability over consistent volume. The 70% under rate demonstrates remarkable consistency, with only brief two-game over streaks interrupting longer under runs. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the magnitude of the misses. Lockett isn't barely missing overs; he's falling significantly short, indicating the market line remains inflated based on his historical production rather than current usage patterns. The +33.6% ROI on unders shows this isn't just a winning trend—it's been profitable even accounting for juice. However, the recent two-game over streak warrants attention, as it could signal either variance or a potential role adjustment. The lack of available split data limits deeper contextual analysis, but the core numbers paint a clear picture of a receiver whose reception props are consistently overvalued by the market.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Tyler Lockett's reception props offer exceptional value on the under side, supported by a 70% hit rate and strong ROI metrics. The consistent 1.0-reception differential suggests systematic market overvaluation rather than temporary variance. Target unders when lines remain in the 2.5-3.5 range, but monitor for any significant offensive scheme changes that could alter his target distribution moving forward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Lockett's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Tyler Lockett has gone under his receptions prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% under rate), with only 3 overs. His 3-7-0 over/under record represents a 30% over rate, making unders highly profitable at +33.6% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Lockett Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on Tyler Lockett's receptions props. The data strongly supports under bets with a 70% hit rate and significant -1.0 average differential. He's consistently falling short of market expectations, creating reliable value on the under side.
What's Tyler Lockett's average Receptions last 10 games?
Tyler Lockett is averaging just 1.9 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.9. This -1.0 differential represents a full reception below market expectations, indicating systematic overvaluation of his reception props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Lockett reception unders when lines are set between 2.5-3.5 receptions, which appears to be the sweet spot for value. Avoid betting after extended over streaks and monitor for any offensive coordinator changes that might alter his usage patterns.