Tyler Lockett has been a brutal over bet recently, hitting just 30% in his last 10 games while averaging 21.6 receiving yards against a 33.3 line. The -11.7 yard differential and -42.7% over ROI signal a clear market inefficiency favoring unders.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Lockett's receiving yards have cratered over this 10-game stretch, creating one of the season's most reliable under trends. The 21.6 average against a 33.3 line represents a massive 35% gap that suggests either injury concerns, role changes, or systematic market overvaluation. Seattle's offensive struggles likely contribute to this downturn, as does potential target competition from other receivers. The 6-game under streak that dominated this sample indicates this isn't random variance but a fundamental shift in Lockett's usage or effectiveness. While the recent 2-game over streak might suggest regression, the sample size remains small against the broader trend. The 33.6% under ROI demonstrates significant betting value, though oddsmakers may eventually adjust lines lower. Key factors include Seattle's offensive line struggles limiting deep passing opportunities where Lockett typically thrives, and potential lingering effects from any undisclosed injuries. The consistency of this trend across 10 games suggests structural issues rather than temporary slumps, making continued under betting logical until clear evidence emerges of role restoration or offensive improvement.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 21.6 average against 33.3 lines creates an 11.7-yard cushion that's too significant to ignore. Seattle's offensive limitations have fundamentally altered Lockett's role, and the 30% over rate across 10 games indicates systematic underperformance rather than bad luck. Target games where Seattle faces strong defenses or weather concerns for maximum edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 18.5 | 28.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 17.5 | 20.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 21.5 | 19.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 22.5 | 22.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 27.5 | 0.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 31.5 | 16.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 38.5 | 20.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 39.5 | 19.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 57.5 | 63.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 58.5 | 9.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Lockett's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Tyler Lockett has gone 3-7-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% while averaging 21.6 yards against 33.3 lines for a devastating -11.7 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Tyler Lockett receiving yards. The 21.6 average against 33.3 lines creates an 11.7-yard cushion, and Seattle's offensive struggles have fundamentally limited his production and opportunities.
What's Tyler Lockett's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Tyler Lockett has averaged 21.6 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to the typical 33.3 line, creating a significant 11.7-yard gap favoring under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Lockett under bets when Seattle faces strong pass defenses or adverse weather conditions. His reduced role makes him vulnerable to game scripts limiting passing volume.