Tyler Conklin's reception props have been a goldmine for over bettors, hitting at a remarkable 71.0% rate across 31 games with a 22-9-0 record. The Jets tight end averages 3.52 receptions against a 2.69 line, creating consistent value with +35.5% ROI on overs.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Conklin's reception dominance stems from his role as the Jets' primary safety valve and intermediate target. The 0.8 reception differential above his typical line reflects consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers who haven't fully adjusted to his target share in New York's offense. Conklin benefits from the Jets' frequent need for reliable hands on third downs and in traffic, where his sure-handed catching ability makes him a preferred target over more athletic but less reliable options. The 71.0% over rate suggests this isn't random variance but a systematic mispricing based on his consistent 4-6 target floor regardless of game script. His role becomes even more pronounced when the Jets fall behind, as shorter routes and higher-percentage targets naturally flow his way. The primary risk lies in potential touchdown vulturing that could limit his target ceiling, and any significant offensive philosophy changes that might emphasize running or deep passing over the intermediate game where Conklin thrives. However, the sample size of 31 games provides strong confidence in the trend's legitimacy.
Betting Verdict
OVER with HIGH confidence. Tyler Conklin's 71.0% over rate combined with a significant 0.8 reception differential creates a clear edge that oddsmakers haven't corrected. The Jets' offensive structure consistently funnels targets to Conklin in crucial situations, making his floor higher than the betting market recognizes. The primary risk is touchdown dependency reducing targets, but his role as a possession receiver minimizes this concern significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 8.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Conklin's Receptions prop record all games?
Tyler Conklin's reception props show a dominant 22-9-0 over record across 31 games, translating to a 71.0% over rate. This represents one of the most consistent prop edges in the tight end position this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Conklin Receptions all games?
Bet the OVER on Tyler Conklin's receptions. His 71.0% over rate and +35.5% ROI provide clear mathematical edge, while his role as the Jets' primary possession receiver creates a sustainable target floor above market expectations.
What's Tyler Conklin's average Receptions all games?
Tyler Conklin averages 3.52 receptions per game against a typical line of 2.69, creating a positive 0.8 reception differential. This gap indicates consistent market undervaluation of his target share and catch rate in the Jets offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Tyler Conklin reception overs consistently regardless of matchup, as his 71.0% success rate shows little variance. Focus on games where the Jets may trail, as negative game scripts typically increase his target volume through checkdowns and possession routes.