Tyler Allgeier's rushing yards props present a clear under opportunity with a 53.1% under rate across 32 games. The Falcons running back averages 37.53 yards against a 34.22 line, but the +1.4% under ROI suggests consistent overvaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
The market consistently overestimates Tyler Allgeier's rushing production, creating sustainable value on the under. Despite averaging 37.53 yards per game—only 3.3 yards above his typical line—Allgeier hits the under 53.1% of the time with a positive 1.4% ROI. This inefficiency stems from Atlanta's pass-heavy approach under Arthur Smith and now Raheem Morris, where Allgeier functions primarily as a complementary back behind the team's primary rushing attack. The Falcons' game script dependency heavily influences Allgeier's workload, as he typically sees increased touches only when protecting leads or in obvious rushing situations. His role as a backup means his usage fluctuates dramatically based on game flow, injury status of other backs, and defensive alignments. The -10.5% over ROI demonstrates how consistently the market inflates his lines, likely due to name recognition and occasional spike games that skew perception. Oddsmakers appear to price in his ceiling performances while underweighting his floor games, where Atlanta's offensive system limits his opportunities. The 46.9% over rate with negative returns indicates this isn't random variance but a systematic pricing error that sharp bettors can exploit consistently.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 53.1% under rate combined with positive under ROI reveals systematic line inflation by oddsmakers. Allgeier's complementary role in Atlanta's offense creates natural volatility that the market consistently overprices. Target unders when his line sits at 35+ yards, particularly in games where the Falcons project to trail and abandon the ground game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 35.5 | 52.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 30.5 | 19.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 37.5 | 22.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 26.5 | 43.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 18.5 | 63.0 | +44.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 26.5 | 16.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 31.5 | 0.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 35.5 | 59.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 43.5 | 18.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 39.5 | 33.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 42.5 | 36.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 38.5 | 105.0 | +66.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 36.5 | 12.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 27.5 | 60.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 25.5 | 32.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Allgeier's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Tyler Allgeier's rushing yards props show a 15-17-0 over/under record across 32 games, hitting the under 53.1% of the time. The under has generated a positive 1.4% ROI while overs have lost -10.5%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Tyler Allgeier's rushing yards props. The 53.1% under rate with positive ROI indicates consistent market overvaluation. Focus on games where his line exceeds 35 yards for maximum edge.
What's Tyler Allgeier's average Rushing Yards all games?
Tyler Allgeier averages 37.53 rushing yards per game against a typical line of 34.22 yards. Despite the 3.3-yard positive differential, unders still provide better value due to systematic line inflation by oddsmakers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Allgeier rushing yards unders when lines exceed 35 yards, especially in games where Atlanta projects to trail. His complementary role creates volatility that the market consistently overprices in these situations.