Tyjae Spears shows minimal edge in away games with a 6-6 over/under record and just a +1.0 yard differential above typical lines. The 50% hit rate and negative ROI on both sides suggest efficient market pricing with no clear directional advantage.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a remarkably balanced proposition with Spears averaging 27.75 rushing yards in away games against lines typically set around 26.75. This modest +1.0 differential falls well within normal variance for a backup running back whose usage fluctuates based on game script and Derrick Henry's workload. The perfect 6-6 split indicates oddsmakers have accurately priced his road production, accounting for factors like increased defensive focus in hostile environments and Tennessee's tendency to rely more heavily on their primary back when trailing. The negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) confirms the market's efficiency, suggesting juice and random variance have eaten into any potential edge. Spears' role as a complementary back makes his yardage highly dependent on game flow, with road games often featuring more conservative offensive approaches that limit his explosive play opportunities. The lack of meaningful splits data further complicates finding situational edges, while the alternating streak pattern (longest runs of just 2) suggests his performances are largely random rather than following predictable patterns. Without clear injury concerns to Henry or significant schematic changes, this appears to be a coin-flip proposition where the house edge makes consistent profit unlikely.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The perfectly balanced 6-6 record and minimal +1.0 yard differential indicate efficient market pricing with no exploitable edge. While Spears slightly outperforms his lines on average, the negative ROI on both sides proves the juice negates any theoretical advantage. Better opportunities exist elsewhere than this coin-flip proposition.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 61.5 | 95.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 21.5 | 27.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 21.5 | 3.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 23.5 | 47.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 24.5 | 39.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 34.5 | 21.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 29.5 | 0.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 20.5 | 29.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 19.5 | 14.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 18.5 | 18.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 24.5 | 34.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 21.5 | 6.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Tyjae Spears props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyjae Spears's Rushing Yards prop record away games?
Tyjae Spears has gone 6-6 on rushing yards overs in away games, hitting exactly 50% with an average of 27.75 yards against typical lines around 26.75 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards away games?
Neither side offers value. The perfect 6-6 split and negative ROI on both overs (-4.5%) and unders (-4.5%) indicate efficient market pricing with no exploitable edge.
What's Tyjae Spears's average Rushing Yards away games?
Spears averages 27.75 rushing yards in away games, just 1.0 yard above typical betting lines of 26.75, indicating minimal edge despite the slight outperformance.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Spears' rushing yards props entirely. The balanced record and negative ROI suggest better value exists elsewhere rather than this efficiently-priced coin-flip proposition.