Tyjae Spears presents a marginal rushing yards edge with an 11-12 over/under record (47.8% overs) and 26.7 average yards versus a 25.46 line. The 1.2-yard positive differential offers slight value, but the -8.7% over ROI suggests market efficiency. Lean under with low conviction.
Expert Analysis
Spears' rushing yards props reflect the reality of a complementary back in Tennessee's backfield hierarchy. His 26.7-yard average slightly exceeds the typical 25.46 line, creating a modest 1.2-yard edge that initially appears promising. However, the -8.7% ROI on overs reveals the market's sophistication in pricing his ceiling limitations. The 47.8% over rate sits just below the breakeven threshold, indicating books accurately capture his role constraints. Spears operates in a committee system where touches fluctuate based on game script, opponent strength, and Derrick Henry's workload distribution. His production ceiling remains capped by limited red zone opportunities and Tennessee's pass-heavy approach in negative game scripts. The three-game over streak suggests recent positive variance rather than a sustainable shift, as his longest streaks in both directions max out at four games. Without clear split advantages or situational edges, Spears' props appear efficiently priced. The minimal under ROI (-0.4%) confirms the market's accuracy in capturing his typical output range, making significant edges rare in this market.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with LOW confidence. The -8.7% over ROI and 47.8% over rate indicate the market efficiently prices Spears' ceiling limitations in Tennessee's committee backfield. Target unders when the line approaches or exceeds 27 yards, particularly in potential negative game scripts where Tennessee abandons the run. The primary risk is positive touchdown variance inflating his rushing attempts in favorable matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 61.5 | 95.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 21.5 | 27.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 20.5 | 21.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 21.5 | 3.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 24.5 | 0.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 23.5 | 47.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 29.5 | 27.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 24.5 | 39.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 25.5 | 7.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 24.5 | 20.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 34.5 | 21.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 29.5 | 0.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 28.5 | 40.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 22.5 | 30.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 20.5 | 29.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Tyjae Spears props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyjae Spears's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Tyjae Spears has an 11-12 over/under record on rushing yards props across 23 games, hitting overs 47.8% of the time. His average of 26.7 yards creates a 1.2-yard edge over the typical 25.46 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards all games?
Lean under on Spears' rushing yards props with low confidence. The -8.7% over ROI and sub-48% over rate indicate the market efficiently prices his role limitations, making unders the slight edge play.
What's Tyjae Spears's average Rushing Yards all games?
Spears averages 26.7 rushing yards per game compared to his typical 25.46 prop line, creating a modest 1.2-yard positive differential. However, this edge hasn't translated to profitable over betting due to market efficiency.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Spears rushing yards unders when lines reach 27+ yards or in games where Tennessee projects to trail early. Avoid betting during his current three-game over streak as it likely represents positive variance.