Tucker Kraft's reception props show a modest edge toward overs, hitting at 54.2% across 24 games with a positive 3.4% ROI. The Packers tight end averages 3.21 receptions against a 3.08 line, creating a small but consistent value gap. This represents a lean over opportunity in the right spots.
Expert Analysis
Tucker Kraft's reception trends reveal a player whose role has stabilized in Green Bay's evolving offense. The 54.2% over rate paired with a positive ROI suggests the market consistently undervalues his target share, likely due to his relative youth and the presence of other receiving threats. The 0.13 average differential between his performance and the betting line indicates oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his expanded usage patterns. What makes Kraft particularly interesting is the sustainability of this edge - tight ends who establish consistent target floors tend to maintain them throughout seasons, especially in systems that utilize multiple receiver sets. The absence of extreme streaks (longest over streak of 5, under streak of 4) suggests his performance isn't overly volatile, which is crucial for prop betting success. However, the -12.5% ROI on unders indicates that when Kraft fails to hit his number, he tends to fall well short, suggesting game script and matchup dependencies that aren't immediately apparent in the raw data. The key risk lies in Green Bay's offensive evolution and whether increased competition for targets could compress his floor moving forward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The consistent 0.13 average edge over the betting line, combined with positive over ROI, creates a sustainable advantage. Kraft's role appears stable enough to maintain this edge, particularly in games where Green Bay projects to throw frequently. The main risk is target competition from other receivers, but his tight end position provides a different role that should maintain a reliable floor. Best spots are neutral to negative game scripts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tucker Kraft's Receptions prop record all games?
Tucker Kraft has gone over his receptions prop in 13 of 24 games (54.2%) with an average of 3.21 receptions. His over bets show a positive 3.4% ROI, while unders have lost -12.5%, indicating consistent market undervaluation of his receiving role.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tucker Kraft Receptions all games?
Lean over on Tucker Kraft receptions props. He consistently averages 0.13 receptions above his betting line with a 54.2% hit rate and positive ROI. The market appears to undervalue his target share in Green Bay's offense, creating sustainable betting value.
What's Tucker Kraft's average Receptions all games?
Tucker Kraft averages 3.21 receptions per game compared to his typical betting line of 3.08. This 0.13 differential represents consistent value, as the market hasn't fully adjusted to his established role in the Packers' passing attack over this 24-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tucker Kraft reception overs in neutral to negative game scripts where Green Bay projects to throw more. His tight end role provides a reliable target floor, and the 0.13 average edge over betting lines creates the best value in games with higher passing volume.