Troy Franklin's reception props show a modest 60.0% over rate across 10 games with a perfectly aligned 1.9 average matching typical lines. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests legitimate value despite the small sample size. Lean over on favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Franklin's reception totals reveal a rookie receiver finding his footing in Denver's evolving offense. The 60.0% over rate paired with a +14.6% ROI indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to his increasing involvement, particularly given his 1.9 average perfectly matches standard lines. This alignment suggests oddsmakers are tracking his usage accurately, but the positive ROI reveals subtle inefficiencies. The longest over streak of four games demonstrates Franklin's ability to sustain elevated target shares when game scripts favor passing or when Denver falls behind. His reception floor appears stable around 1-2 catches, but the ceiling extends to 4-5 receptions in pass-heavy situations. The concerning -23.6% under ROI suggests betting unders carries significant risk, likely due to Franklin's role expanding throughout the season as coaches gained confidence in the rookie. Denver's offensive evolution and Franklin's growing chemistry with the quarterback corps creates an environment where reception props may continue trending over, especially in games where the Broncos need to throw frequently. The key lies in identifying spots where game flow and matchup dynamics favor increased passing volume.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Franklin's +14.6% ROI on overs combined with his expanding role suggests continued value on the over side. Target games where Denver projects to trail or face strong rushing defenses that force passing situations. The main risk is his rookie inconsistency and Denver's run-first tendencies in favorable game scripts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Troy Franklin's Receptions prop record all games?
Troy Franklin has hit the over on his receptions prop in 6 of 10 games (60.0% rate) with an average of 1.9 receptions per game, generating a +14.6% ROI for over bettors this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Troy Franklin Receptions all games?
Bet over on Franklin's receptions, particularly in games where Denver projects to trail or faces strong run defenses. His +14.6% over ROI and expanding role create consistent value on the over side.
What's Troy Franklin's average Receptions all games?
Franklin averages exactly 1.9 receptions per game, perfectly matching typical prop lines of 1.5-2.5. This alignment shows accurate market pricing but the positive over ROI reveals subtle betting opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Franklin reception overs when Denver faces deficits or strong rushing defenses that force passing situations. His four-game over streak shows he thrives in pass-heavy game scripts and negative game flow scenarios.