Trey Palmer has hit the over in exactly half his games (5-5-0) over the last 10 contests, but his 30.8 yard average significantly exceeds typical lines around 22.4 yards. Despite the balanced record, Palmer's 8.4 yard positive differential suggests consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
Palmer's receiving yards props present a fascinating case study in market inefficiency. While his 50% over rate appears perfectly balanced, the underlying numbers tell a different story. His 30.8 yard average represents a substantial 37.5% premium over typical market lines, indicating oddsmakers consistently underestimate his production floor. The negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) reflects tight market pricing, but the significant yardage differential suggests value exists when lines fall below his demonstrated average. Palmer's role as Tampa Bay's emerging slot receiver has stabilized, providing consistent target opportunities that translate to reliable yardage accumulation. The alternating pattern between overs and unders (longest streaks of 5 and 4 respectively) indicates game-script dependency rather than systematic production issues. His current one-game under streak follows a season-long pattern of volatility, but the underlying target share and route running have remained consistent. The lack of extreme outliers in either direction suggests Palmer has found his NFL rhythm, making his props more predictable than the 50% over rate initially suggests. Market adjustment appears slow, creating ongoing opportunities when his lines fail to reflect his established production baseline.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Palmer's 8.4 yard average differential above typical lines represents genuine value despite the balanced record. His consistent role in Tampa Bay's offense provides a reliable production floor that oddsmakers haven't fully recognized. Target Palmer overs when lines fall below 28 yards, as his established average suggests strong probability of exceeding lower numbers. Main risk is game-script dependency in blowout scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 36.5 | 29.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 16.5 | 26.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 17.5 | 32.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 24.5 | 56.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 17.5 | 84.0 | +66.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 42.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 22.5 | 5.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 23.5 | 5.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 24.5 | 12.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 26.5 | 17.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey Palmer's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Palmer has gone 5-5-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of his overs. While perfectly balanced, his 30.8 yard average significantly exceeds typical market lines around 22.4 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey Palmer Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Palmer's receiving yards props when available. His 30.8 yard average creates an 8.4 yard cushion above typical lines, indicating consistent market undervaluation despite the balanced 5-5-0 record suggesting otherwise.
What's Trey Palmer's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Palmer averages 30.8 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 22.4 yards. This 8.4 yard differential represents a 37.5% premium, indicating oddsmakers consistently undervalue his production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Palmer receiving yards overs when lines fall below 28 yards, as his established average provides strong probability of success. Avoid in potential blowout scenarios where game script could limit passing volume.