Trey McBride has obliterated reception totals over the past 10 games, posting a dominant 70% over rate (7-3-0) while averaging 7.8 receptions against a 5.9 line. The Cardinals tight end delivers a staggering +33.6% ROI on overs with a consistent +1.9 reception differential.
Expert Analysis
McBride's reception dominance stems from Arizona's offensive evolution into a tight end-centric attack. The Cardinals have increasingly relied on McBride as their primary security blanket, particularly in crucial down-and-distance situations where his reliable hands and route-running create consistent target opportunities. The 7.8 reception average represents a significant leap from typical tight end usage, indicating a fundamental shift in Arizona's offensive philosophy rather than temporary variance. McBride's role has expanded beyond traditional tight end duties, functioning more like a slot receiver with the size advantage of a traditional tight end. The consistency is remarkable - even in his three under performances, McBride never completely disappeared, suggesting a high floor that makes the over consistently attractive. The +1.9 differential indicates books haven't fully adjusted to his expanded role, creating ongoing value. However, the 70% hit rate raises some concern about regression, especially if Arizona faces game scripts that favor running or if opposing defenses begin bracketing McBride more aggressively. The lack of a catastrophic under performance (longest under streak only 2 games) demonstrates remarkable consistency, but also suggests we may be due for a correction game.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. McBride's expanded role in Arizona's offense creates legitimate value against lines that haven't fully caught up to his usage. The +1.9 reception differential and 70% hit rate indicate sustainable opportunity, though some regression is inevitable. Target overs when Arizona faces teams that struggle defending tight ends or in games with projected high passing volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 12.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 12.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 12.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey McBride's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
McBride has hit the over in 7 of his last 10 games (70% rate) while going under just 3 times. His reception props show a dominant 7-3-0 over/under record with no pushes during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey McBride Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on McBride's reception props. The +1.9 average differential above the line and 70% hit rate create legitimate value, though some regression is possible given the hot streak.
What's Trey McBride's average Receptions last 10 games?
McBride averages 7.8 receptions over his last 10 games compared to a typical 5.9 line, creating a substantial +1.9 reception differential that indicates consistent value on the over.
How reliable is this trend?
Target McBride reception overs when Arizona faces teams weak against tight ends or in games with high passing volume projections. His expanded role creates the most value in pass-heavy game scripts.