Trey McBride has delivered exceptional over value across his last 10 games, hitting the over 60% of the time with an average of 82.4 yards against a 60.5-yard line. This +21.9 yard differential represents a significant market inefficiency that savvy bettors should target.
Expert Analysis
Trey McBride's receiving yards prop has become one of the most reliable over bets in the NFL, and the underlying factors suggest this trend has staying power. The Cardinals tight end is averaging 82.4 yards over his last 10 games while the market continues to set his line around 60.5 yards, creating a massive +21.9 yard cushion that speaks to either market lag or fundamental undervaluation. McBride's role as Arizona's primary safety valve has evolved throughout the season, with his target share increasing as the Cardinals have leaned more heavily on short and intermediate passing concepts. The 14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates this isn't just variance – it's systematic value. What makes this trend particularly compelling is McBride's consistency within this hot stretch, avoiding the boom-bust cycles that plague many tight end props. His floor appears elevated due to his involvement in the Cardinals' base offensive concepts rather than just red zone or situational packages. The recent one-game under streak actually presents an opportunity, as regression fears may have the market overcompensating. The key risk is whether oddsmakers will finally adjust his lines upward to reflect his expanded usage, but until that happens, this represents premium betting value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. McBride's 82.4-yard average against a 60.5-yard line creates substantial value, supported by his evolved role in Arizona's passing attack. The 60% over rate with strong ROI suggests sustainable edge rather than hot streak variance. Primary risk is line adjustment, but current market inefficiency remains too significant to ignore.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 68.5 | 65.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 64.5 | 123.0 | +58.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 69.5 | 20.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 59.5 | 87.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 71.5 | 70.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 60.5 | 96.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 53.5 | 133.0 | +79.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 54.5 | 71.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 54.5 | 35.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 48.5 | 124.0 | +75.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey McBride's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
McBride has gone over his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% hit rate) with a 6-4-0 over/under record. His average of 82.4 yards significantly exceeds the typical 60.5-yard line, creating consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey McBride Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on McBride's receiving yards props. His 82.4-yard average against 60.5-yard lines creates a +21.9 yard edge with 14.6% ROI. The market hasn't caught up to his expanded role in Arizona's offense.
What's Trey McBride's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
McBride is averaging 82.4 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to his typical 60.5-yard prop line. This +21.9 yard differential represents significant value, with the market consistently undervaluing his production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target McBride receiving yards overs when lines remain around 60.5 yards or lower. His expanded role as Arizona's primary safety valve creates consistent volume, making him ideal for steady over betting until oddsmakers adjust.