Trey McBride has been a consistent over performer in receiving yards, hitting the over in 57.1% of games (16-12 record) while averaging 66.5 yards against a 51.64 line. The +14.9 yard differential represents significant market inefficiency that continues to provide value on overs.
Expert Analysis
McBride's receiving yards trend reflects his emergence as Arizona's primary pass-catching weapon and the market's slow adjustment to his expanded role. The 66.5 yard average against a 51.64 line suggests sportsbooks are still pricing him as a complementary target rather than the focal point he's become. This 14.9 yard differential is substantial for a tight end prop, indicating either persistent market mispricing or fundamental changes in usage that lines haven't captured. The +9.1% ROI on overs demonstrates this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge rooted in McBride's target share and Arizona's offensive scheme. His position as the Cardinals' most reliable receiver, combined with the team's frequent need to throw from behind, creates consistent volume opportunities. The 28-game sample provides statistical significance, while the current one-game under streak after hitting three straight overs suggests natural variance rather than a role change. McBride's route running from multiple alignments and red zone involvement make him less dependent on game script than traditional tight ends, supporting the sustainability of this trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.9 yard average differential and 57.1% hit rate indicate legitimate market inefficiency rather than random variance. McBride's role as Arizona's primary receiving threat creates consistent volume, while the market appears slow to adjust lines upward. The main risk is potential regression to mean, but his usage patterns suggest the edge remains intact for now.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 68.5 | 65.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 64.5 | 123.0 | +58.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 69.5 | 20.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 59.5 | 87.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 71.5 | 70.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 60.5 | 96.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 53.5 | 133.0 | +79.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 54.5 | 71.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 54.5 | 35.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 48.5 | 124.0 | +75.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 51.5 | 51.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 49.5 | 96.0 | +46.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 44.5 | 53.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 53.5 | 25.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 50.5 | 67.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey McBride's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
McBride's receiving yards prop shows a 16-12 over/under record (57.1% overs) across 28 games from September 2023 to January 2025, demonstrating consistent over performance with a +9.1% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey McBride Receiving Yards all games?
Lean over on McBride's receiving yards props. His 14.9 yard average differential above the typical line and 57.1% hit rate suggest market inefficiency. The edge appears sustainable given his expanded role in Arizona's offense.
What's Trey McBride's average Receiving Yards all games?
McBride averages 66.5 receiving yards per game against a typical line of 51.64 yards, creating a significant +14.9 yard differential. This gap indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to his increased usage and target share.
How reliable is this trend?
Target McBride receiving yards overs when lines remain in the low-to-mid 50s range, as this represents the market inefficiency. His consistent volume and role as Arizona's primary receiver make most game situations favorable for over bets.