Trevor Lawrence's rushing yards props in conference games present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 41.2% overs across 17 games with a devastating -21.4% ROI on the over side. His 15.59 average barely exceeds the typical 14.85 line, creating consistent value on unders with a profitable +12.3% return.
Expert Analysis
Lawrence's rushing production in conference games reveals a quarterback whose mobility is consistently overvalued by oddsmakers. The 7-10 over/under record isn't just bad luck—it reflects systematic factors that suppress his ground game against familiar AFC South opponents. Conference teams have extensive film on Lawrence's scrambling tendencies and designed runs, allowing them to better contain his rushing attempts. The Jaguars' offensive coordinator also tends to rely more heavily on pocket passing in divisional games where defensive coordinators know Lawrence's mobility patterns intimately. His modest 0.7-yard edge over the betting line suggests oddsmakers are pricing in his athletic ability without accounting for the strategic adjustments conference opponents make. The -21.4% ROI on overs is particularly damning, indicating that even when Lawrence does exceed his rushing line, the victories aren't frequent enough to overcome the juice. His current streak of one under aligns with the broader pattern, and the historical data shows longer under streaks (up to 3 games) than over streaks (maximum 2), suggesting defensive adjustments compound over time within the division.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.8% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge against conference opponents who've studied Lawrence extensively. Target games where Jacksonville faces AFC South rivals, particularly when the Jaguars are favored and likely to emphasize ball control over scrambling. The primary risk is garbage-time rushing attempts in blowout losses, but the data suggests this scenario hasn't materialized frequently enough to derail the under trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 13.5 | 6.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 12.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 14.5 | 5.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 16.5 | 3.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 45.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 16.5 | 8.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 13.5 | 41.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-04 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 11.5 | 17.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 10.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 17.5 | 15.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 15.5 | 31.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 12.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Lawrence's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
Lawrence's rushing yards props in conference games show a 7-10 over/under record (41.2% overs) across 17 games from September 2023 to December 2024, with unders providing a +12.3% ROI compared to overs' -21.4% loss rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards conference games?
Bet under on Lawrence's rushing yards in conference games. The 58.8% under rate and positive ROI create a clear edge, as AFC South opponents consistently limit his scrambling better than oddsmakers expect.
What's Trevor Lawrence's average Rushing Yards conference games?
Lawrence averages 15.59 rushing yards in conference games against a typical line of 14.85 yards, creating just a 0.7-yard edge that's insufficient to overcome the betting juice and justify consistent over bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lawrence rushing unders specifically in AFC South divisional games where defensive coordinators have extensive film study. Avoid when Jacksonville trails significantly, as garbage-time scrambling can inflate his rushing totals unexpectedly.