Trevor Lawrence's passing yards props at home present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 46.2% overs across 13 games with an average 8.3-yard shortfall versus the line. The consistent underperformance at home, combined with a positive 2.8% ROI on unders, makes this trend worth targeting.
Expert Analysis
Lawrence's home passing struggles stem from Jacksonville's conservative approach when playing in front of their crowd, averaging 229.6 yards against lines typically set around 238. This 8.3-yard differential isn't random variance—it reflects systematic factors including the Jaguars' tendency to establish the run game early at home and their defense playing with more aggression in familiar surroundings, leading to shorter fields and fewer passing opportunities. The 46.2% over rate across 13 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the -11.9% ROI on overs shows books haven't fully adjusted their home lines downward. Lawrence's arm talent remains elite, but situational factors consistently suppress his volume at TIAA Bank Field. The current one-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, and without significant offensive philosophy changes or personnel additions, this trend should persist. Weather rarely impacts Jacksonville's dome-like conditions, making this a pure scheme and situation play rather than external factor dependent.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Lawrence's 8.3-yard average shortfall at home creates consistent value on the under, particularly when lines exceed 235 yards. The 2.8% positive ROI on unders validates this approach over a meaningful 13-game sample. Primary risk involves potential garbage-time volume if Jacksonville falls behind early, but their home defensive improvements typically keep games competitive enough to limit desperation passing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 209.5 | 41.0 | -168.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 237.5 | 308.0 | +70.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 229.5 | 193.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 234.5 | 371.0 | +136.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 224.5 | 220.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 235.5 | 264.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-04 | OPP | 244.5 | 258.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 242.5 | 262.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 238.5 | 185.0 | -53.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 254.5 | 181.0 | -73.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 234.5 | 207.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 245.5 | 279.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 262.5 | 216.0 | -46.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Lawrence's Passing Yards prop record home games?
Lawrence's passing yards props at home show a 6-7-0 over/under record (46.2% overs) across 13 games from September 2023 to December 2024, demonstrating consistent underperformance against the betting lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards home games?
Bet the under on Lawrence's home passing yards props. His 8.3-yard average shortfall below the line and 2.8% positive under ROI across 13 games creates sustainable value, especially on lines above 235 yards.
What's Trevor Lawrence's average Passing Yards home games?
Lawrence averages 229.6 passing yards in home games, running 8.3 yards below the typical line of 237.96. This consistent shortfall reflects Jacksonville's more conservative offensive approach when playing at TIAA Bank Field.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lawrence passing yards unders when Jacksonville hosts divisional opponents or teams with strong run defenses that force conservative game scripts. Lines above 235 yards offer the best value given his home average.