Trevor Lawrence has been a touchdown desert over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time while averaging only 1.0 passing touchdowns against a typical 1.5 line. The Jaguars' offensive struggles and Lawrence's inconsistent red zone execution create a compelling under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Trevor Lawrence's recent touchdown production. Averaging just 1.0 passing touchdowns per game while consistently facing 1.5 lines, Lawrence has delivered a brutal -42.7% ROI for over bettors while rewarding under backers with a solid 33.6% return. This isn't just variance – it reflects deeper structural issues with Jacksonville's offense. The Jaguars have struggled in the red zone, often settling for field goals or turning the ball over in scoring position. Lawrence's decision-making under pressure has been questionable, leading to untimely interceptions that kill drives. The team's inconsistent running game hasn't helped, as defenses can focus on pass coverage without respecting the ground attack. Lawrence's current streak of two consecutive unders follows a pattern we've seen throughout this sample, where he's managed just two consecutive overs at his peak. The longest under streak reached four games, highlighting how sustained his touchdown drought has been. With Jacksonville's offensive line issues and limited receiving weapons beyond a few key targets, Lawrence continues to face structural headwinds that make consistent multi-touchdown performances unlikely.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Lawrence's 1.0 touchdown average against 1.5 lines creates clear mathematical value, especially given Jacksonville's red zone inefficiencies and his tendency toward conservative play-calling in tight games. The ideal spot comes against strong defenses that can force field goal attempts. Main risk is a potential blowout game where garbage time inflates his numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Lawrence's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Trevor Lawrence has gone over his passing touchdowns prop just 3 times in his last 10 games (30% hit rate) with a 3-7-0 over/under record. This represents one of the worst over rates among starting quarterbacks during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Lawrence Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Trevor Lawrence's passing touchdowns. His 1.0 average against 1.5 lines creates consistent value, backed by Jacksonville's red zone struggles and his conservative play style in recent games.
What's Trevor Lawrence's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Trevor Lawrence averages 1.0 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games, which is 0.5 touchdowns below the typical 1.5 line he faces. This significant gap explains why unders have been profitable at 33.6% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lawrence passing touchdown unders against strong defenses or in potential low-scoring divisional games. Avoid when Jacksonville is heavily favored or in potential shootouts where garbage time could inflate his numbers.