Trevor Lawrence has been a disaster for passing touchdown overs in conference games, hitting just 31.2% with a brutal -40.3% ROI. His 1.12 average falls well short of the typical 1.5 line, creating consistent value on unders with strong 31.2% returns.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Lawrence's struggles against conference opponents who know his tendencies intimately. His 1.12 touchdown average represents a significant 25.3% shortfall from the standard 1.5 line, indicating consistent market overvaluation. The 68.8% under rate isn't just impressive—it's systematic, suggesting defensive coordinators within the AFC South have developed effective blueprints against Jacksonville's passing attack. Lawrence's current two-game under streak follows his season-long pattern, with his longest over streak reaching just one game compared to a four-game under run. The -0.4 differential between his average and the line creates mathematical value that compounds over time. Conference games present unique challenges as divisional rivals study film extensively and adjust schemes specifically for Lawrence's skill set. The Jaguars' offensive line struggles and limited receiving depth become more pronounced against familiar opponents who can exploit known weaknesses. Jacksonville's tendency to lean on the running game in tight divisional contests further caps Lawrence's touchdown upside. Without significant offensive personnel changes or schematic innovations, this trend appears sustainable rather than regression-prone, as the underlying factors—intimate opponent knowledge and Jacksonville's offensive limitations—remain constant.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Lawrence's 31.2% over rate in conference games creates exceptional value on unders, delivering 31.2% ROI compared to devastating -40.3% losses on overs. The 1.12 average versus 1.5 line represents sustainable mathematical edge, not fluky variance. Target unders when Jacksonville faces division rivals who've had extended time to prepare and exploit the Jaguars' predictable offensive tendencies.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Lawrence's Passing TDs prop record conference games?
Lawrence has gone 5-11-0 on passing touchdown overs in conference games (31.2% hit rate) with a devastating -40.3% ROI for over bettors. Under bettors have enjoyed 31.2% returns across 16 games spanning from September 2023 to December 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Lawrence Passing TDs conference games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Lawrence's 1.12 touchdown average falls significantly short of typical 1.5 lines in conference games. Under bettors have generated 31.2% ROI while overs have lost 40.3%, creating clear mathematical value on the under.
What's Trevor Lawrence's average Passing TDs conference games?
Lawrence averages 1.12 passing touchdowns in conference games, which is 0.4 touchdowns below the standard 1.5 line. This 25.3% shortfall represents consistent market overvaluation and creates sustainable value for under bettors in divisional matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lawrence passing touchdown unders in conference games, especially against AFC South rivals who've had extensive time to study Jacksonville's offense. The edge is strongest when divisional opponents can exploit their intimate knowledge of the Jaguars' predictable schemes.