Trevor Lawrence's passing touchdown props present a compelling under opportunity with his 31.8% over rate across 22 games. The Jaguars quarterback averages just 1.09 touchdowns against a typical 1.5 line, creating a -0.4 differential that has produced +30.2% ROI on unders. This systematic underperformance suggests consistent value betting the under.
Expert Analysis
Trevor Lawrence's passing touchdown struggles stem from Jacksonville's inconsistent red zone execution and offensive line protection issues that force quick throws over extended drives. The 1.09 average against 1.5 lines reflects a quarterback operating in an offense that frequently stalls in scoring position, often settling for field goals rather than touchdowns. Lawrence's 31.8% over rate isn't just poor luck—it represents systematic offensive limitations that persist regardless of opponent strength. The Jaguars' tendency to abandon the passing game in close contests further limits Lawrence's touchdown opportunities, as they lean heavily on their running game to control clock and field position. The current two-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, where his longest over streak reached just two games compared to a five-game under run. This disparity suggests the market consistently overvalues Lawrence's touchdown potential relative to Jacksonville's offensive reality. The -39.3% ROI on overs demonstrates how sharply the betting public and oddsmakers misjudge his scoring frequency, creating sustainable value for disciplined under bettors who recognize the structural factors limiting his touchdown production.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Lawrence's 1.09 touchdown average creates a massive -0.4 gap against standard 1.5 lines, generating exceptional +30.2% ROI on unders. Jacksonville's red zone inefficiency and conservative game management consistently limit his scoring opportunities regardless of game script. The ideal betting spot comes when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, though the primary risk involves potential garbage-time touchdowns in blowout losses that could inflate his numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Lawrence's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Trevor Lawrence has gone over his passing touchdown props in just 7 of 22 games (31.8% rate) with a 7-15-0 record. He averages 1.09 touchdowns per game against typical 1.5 lines, creating consistent value on under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Lawrence Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Trevor Lawrence's passing touchdowns with high confidence. His 1.09 average creates a -0.4 differential against standard lines, producing +30.2% ROI on unders while overs lose -39.3% consistently over 22 games.
What's Trevor Lawrence's average Passing TDs all games?
Lawrence averages 1.09 passing touchdowns per game across all situations. This sits 0.4 touchdowns below typical 1.5 betting lines, creating a significant gap that has consistently favored under bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Lawrence's touchdown unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, particularly in divisional games where Jacksonville tends toward conservative offensive approaches. Avoid betting during potential blowout scenarios where garbage-time scoring could inflate his numbers.