Tony Pollard's rushing yards props have been profitable on the under, hitting just 40.0% overs across his last 10 games with a strong +14.6% ROI betting unders. The market has slightly overvalued his floor despite averaging only 1.7 yards above typical lines. Lean under on Pollard rushing props.
Expert Analysis
Tony Pollard's rushing yard props present a clear market inefficiency, with books consistently setting lines that overestimate his weekly floor. His 4-6-0 over/under record tells only part of the story—the real edge lies in the -23.6% ROI for overs versus a healthy +14.6% return backing unders. This isn't a case of dramatic underperformance, as Pollard averages 67.9 yards against a 66.2 average line, but rather reflects the market's failure to properly account for his usage volatility in Tennessee's inconsistent offense. The Titans' game script dependency has created feast-or-famine scenarios where Pollard either exceeds expectations significantly or falls well short, with no middle ground. His current three-game under streak isn't coincidental—it reflects Tennessee's recent offensive struggles and increased reliance on passing game scripts. The concerning factor isn't Pollard's talent, but rather the predictable nature of when he'll hit versus miss, typically correlating with the team's ability to maintain leads and control clock. Books appear slow to adjust their lines downward despite mounting evidence of this pattern, creating sustained value on the under that sharp bettors should exploit while it persists.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +14.6% ROI on unders combined with Pollard's current three-game under streak creates exploitable value, particularly when Tennessee faces quality opponents likely to force passing situations. The primary risk is a potential breakout performance that could shift market perception, but the underlying usage concerns in Tennessee's offense make unders the stronger long-term play until the Titans demonstrate more consistent offensive efficiency.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 86.5 | 62.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 61.5 | 35.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 65.5 | 45.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 68.5 | 102.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 69.5 | 35.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 60.5 | 119.0 | +58.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 55.5 | 15.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 64.5 | 44.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 68.5 | 128.0 | +59.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 61.5 | 94.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tony Pollard's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Tony Pollard has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40.0% hit rate), going under in 6 games. He's averaging 67.9 rushing yards against an average line of 66.2 yards over this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tony Pollard Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Tony Pollard's rushing yards props. The under has generated a +14.6% ROI over his last 10 games while overs have lost -23.6%, making unders the clear value play given Tennessee's offensive inconsistency.
What's Tony Pollard's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Tony Pollard is averaging 67.9 rushing yards over his last 10 games, just 1.7 yards above the average line of 66.2. This minimal edge hasn't translated to consistent overs, with unders hitting 60% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tony Pollard under props when Tennessee faces strong defenses or quality opponents likely to force passing game scripts. His rushing volume becomes highly game-script dependent, making unders profitable in competitive matchups where the Titans trail.