Tony Pollard's rushing yards props in away games present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 35.3% overs across 17 games with a brutal -32.6% ROI on overs. The Titans running back averages 63.59 yards against a 61.21 line, but this modest edge masks consistent underperformance that generates +23.5% ROI betting unders.
Expert Analysis
The mathematics here tell a compelling story of market inefficiency. Tony Pollard's 6-11 over record in away games represents systematic underperformance that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for, creating sustainable value on the under side. The +23.5% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern rooted in Tennessee's road struggles and Pollard's adaptation challenges away from home. The 2.4-yard differential between his average and the betting line appears favorable on surface level, but context matters enormously. Road games typically feature tougher defensive schemes, crowd noise affecting offensive line communication, and the Titans' overall offensive limitations becoming more pronounced in hostile environments. Pollard's current two-game under streak, while not lengthy, aligns with his historical six-game under streak that demonstrates extended periods of prop failures. The sample size of 17 games provides statistical significance, and the consistency of the underperformance suggests this trend has staying power rather than being a temporary aberration that will regress toward league averages.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 64.7% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge, though the modest 2.4-yard shortfall prevents this from being a high-conviction play. Target Tony Pollard rushing yards unders in away games when the line sits above 62 yards, particularly against defenses ranked in the top half against the run. The primary risk is Tennessee's offensive improvement or increased game script dependence on Pollard's rushing volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 61.5 | 35.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 69.5 | 35.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 60.5 | 119.0 | +58.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 64.5 | 44.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 61.5 | 94.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 68.5 | 61.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 51.5 | 88.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 42.5 | 82.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 61.5 | 70.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 53.5 | 38.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 53.5 | 52.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 66.5 | 61.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 53.5 | 51.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-16 | OPP | 69.5 | 30.0 | -39.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 59.5 | 29.0 | -30.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tony Pollard's Rushing Yards prop record away games?
Tony Pollard's rushing yards props in away games show a 6-11 over/under record (35.3% overs) across 17 games from September 2023 to December 2024, generating a -32.6% ROI on overs and +23.5% ROI on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tony Pollard Rushing Yards away games?
Bet under on Tony Pollard's rushing yards in away games. The 64.7% under rate and +23.5% ROI create consistent value, especially when lines exceed 62 yards against competent run defenses.
What's Tony Pollard's average Rushing Yards away games?
Tony Pollard averages 63.59 rushing yards in away games compared to an average line of 61.21 yards, creating a +2.4 yard differential that masks his consistent underperformance relative to market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tony Pollard rushing yards unders in away games when lines exceed 62 yards, particularly against top-half run defenses or when Tennessee faces early deficits that could limit rushing attempts.