Tony Pollard's receiving yards props present a clear under opportunity with just 45.5% overs across 33 games. His 17.52 average sits 0.6 yards below typical lines, generating positive 4.1% ROI on unders while overs hemorrhage at -13.2%. The data strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Tony Pollard's receiving yards consistently disappoint relative to market expectations, creating a systematic edge for under bettors. His 15-18 over/under record reflects a fundamental disconnect between his actual receiving role and sportsbook pricing. The -0.6 yard differential between his average (17.52) and typical lines (18.11) might seem minimal, but it's significant in a market where margins are razor-thin. This pattern stems from Pollard's primary identity as a rushing threat rather than a pass-catching specialist. Even during his productive Dallas years, he averaged fewer than three targets per game, limiting his ceiling in Tennessee's run-heavy approach. The 4.1% ROI on unders demonstrates genuine value, while the brutal -13.2% over ROI shows how consistently the market overestimates his aerial contributions. His current two-game under streak aligns with the broader trend, though variance means short-term patterns shouldn't override the larger sample. The persistence of this edge suggests sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted their pricing model for Pollard's limited receiving usage, particularly as he transitions to a new offensive system that may prioritize his ground game even more heavily.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 4.1% under ROI and consistent market mispricing create legitimate value, though the edge isn't overwhelming enough for maximum conviction. Target games where Tennessee faces strong run defenses that might force more passing, as these scenarios often see the biggest line inflation. Primary risk involves garbage-time targets in blowouts or unexpected game scripts that force heavy passing volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 5.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 15.5 | 0.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 17.5 | 22.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 16.5 | 33.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 16.5 | 10.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 16.5 | 14.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 17.5 | 26.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 19.5 | 23.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 23.5 | 4.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 17.5 | -5.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 13.5 | 20.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 14.5 | 15.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 12.5 | 40.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tony Pollard's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Tony Pollard's receiving yards props show a 15-18 over/under record across 33 games, hitting overs just 45.5% of the time. This translates to consistent underperformance against market expectations with unders providing positive value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tony Pollard Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Tony Pollard's receiving yards props. The data shows 4.1% ROI on unders versus -13.2% losses on overs, with his 17.52 average consistently falling short of typical 18+ lines.
What's Tony Pollard's average Receiving Yards all games?
Tony Pollard averages 17.52 receiving yards across all games, which sits 0.6 yards below the typical line of 18.11. This seemingly small gap creates meaningful value for under bettors in tight prop markets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tony Pollard receiving yards unders when Tennessee faces strong run defenses that might inflate passing expectations. Avoid games with potential blowout scenarios where garbage-time targets could boost his receiving volume unexpectedly.