Tim Patrick has been a reception volume machine over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 70% clip with a +33.6% ROI. The veteran receiver is averaging 2.4 receptions against a 1.9 line, creating a consistent half-catch edge that's proven profitable. Lean over on Patrick's reception props.
Expert Analysis
Patrick's reception consistency stems from his role as Detroit's reliable possession receiver, particularly in short-yardage and red zone situations where his 6'4" frame creates mismatches. The 0.5 reception differential above the line suggests oddsmakers are undervaluing his target share in an offense that spreads the ball effectively. His 70% over rate isn't just volume-driven—it reflects consistent usage patterns that create predictable floor outcomes. The 6-game over streak within this sample demonstrates sustainable usage rather than random variance. Patrick's veteran savvy allows him to find soft spots in coverage, particularly on comeback routes and possession downs where his reliable hands become crucial. The Lions' offensive philosophy emphasizes getting multiple receivers involved, which benefits Patrick's reception totals even when his yardage numbers fluctuate. However, the recent 1-game under streak could signal defensive adjustments or evolving game scripts. The key risk is Detroit's tendency to lean heavily on running backs in blowout scenarios, which could limit Patrick's target opportunities in games with large point spreads.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Patrick's 70% over rate and positive half-catch differential create a legitimate edge, especially when Detroit faces competitive game scripts that require consistent passing. Target his reception props when the Lions are underdogs or in games with totals above 45 points, as these scenarios maximize his target share. The main risk is blowout games where Detroit controls the clock through their ground game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tim Patrick's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Tim Patrick has gone over his receptions prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% over rate) with a 7-3-0 record. This strong over tendency has generated a +33.6% ROI for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tim Patrick Receptions last 10 games?
Bet the over on Tim Patrick's receptions props. His 70% over rate and +0.5 average differential above the line create a legitimate edge, particularly in competitive games where Detroit maintains balanced offensive attack throughout.
What's Tim Patrick's average Receptions last 10 games?
Tim Patrick is averaging 2.4 receptions over his last 10 games compared to his typical line of 1.9. This +0.5 differential above the betting line has been the foundation of his profitable over trend.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Patrick's reception overs when Detroit faces competitive spreads or games with higher totals above 45 points. Avoid in potential blowout scenarios where the Lions might rely heavily on their ground game to control clock.