Tim Patrick has cleared his receiving yards line in 60% of his last 10 games, averaging 25.1 yards against a 22.4 line for a +2.7 differential. The over bets show a healthy +14.6% ROI, indicating consistent value. This points to a lean over on Patrick's receiving yards props.
Expert Analysis
Tim Patrick's receiving yards trend reveals a veteran receiver finding his role in Detroit's evolving offense. The 25.1-yard average against a 22.4 line suggests oddsmakers are slightly undervaluing his contribution, creating a modest but exploitable edge. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates this isn't random variance but a systematic underpricing. Patrick's 6-4 over record shows consistency without being unsustainable - he's not dramatically outperforming expectations that would trigger sharp line corrections. The Lions' offensive system appears to provide Patrick with enough targets and red zone looks to consistently reach the mid-20s in receiving yards. His veteran presence and reliable hands make him a steady option in an offense that spreads the ball around. The current streak of one over suggests recent form aligns with the broader trend. However, the sample size of 10 games demands caution, and Patrick's role could shift with personnel changes or game script variations. The moderate differential suggests this edge may not persist indefinitely as books adjust, but current pricing appears to offer value for disciplined bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Patrick's 60% over rate and +2.7 yard differential above his line create a measurable edge that oddsmakers haven't fully corrected. The veteran receiver's consistent role in Detroit's offense supports continued value on overs. Primary risk is the limited sample size and potential for the Lions to alter offensive usage patterns as the season progresses.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 16.5 | 22.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 17.5 | 15.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 27.5 | 0.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 32.5 | 0.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 29.5 | 30.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 24.5 | 43.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 21.5 | 48.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 15.5 | 55.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 15.5 | 26.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 23.5 | 12.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tim Patrick's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Tim Patrick has gone over his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% over rate). He's averaging 25.1 yards against typical lines of 22.4, creating a +2.7 differential that has generated +14.6% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tim Patrick Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Tim Patrick's receiving yards props. His 60% over rate and consistent +2.7 yard differential above his line indicate oddsmakers are underpricing his production. The +14.6% ROI on overs shows measurable value, though bet sizing should remain modest.
What's Tim Patrick's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Tim Patrick is averaging 25.1 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to typical prop lines around 22.4 yards. This +2.7 yard differential suggests he's consistently outperforming market expectations by a small but meaningful margin.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Patrick's receiving yards overs when his line sits around 22-23 yards, which appears to be his sweet spot for value. Avoid betting after sharp line movements upward, and consider his role could change with Lions offensive adjustments.