Tim Patrick's receiving yards consistently exceed expectations with an 8-5-0 over record (61.5%) and +3.8 yard average differential above the line. The 17.5% ROI on overs reflects meaningful value, while the -26.6% under ROI shows the market consistently undervalues his production. Lean Over.
Expert Analysis
Tim Patrick's receiving yards trend reveals a market inefficiency rooted in perception versus reality. The veteran receiver's 26.46 yard average against a 22.65 line represents consistent undervaluation, likely stemming from his injury history and secondary role in Detroit's offense. The 61.5% over rate across 13 games demonstrates this isn't random variance but systematic mispricing. Patrick's ability to exceed modest expectations stems from his reliable hands and red zone utility, factors that don't always translate to volume but create consistent yardage floors. The Lions' balanced offensive attack provides Patrick with quality targets rather than quantity, making his overs more sustainable than volume-dependent receivers. His longest over streak of five games suggests momentum builds when he finds rhythm within the offense. However, the three-game under streak indicates vulnerability to game script and target distribution changes. The key risk lies in Detroit's deep receiving corps potentially limiting Patrick's ceiling, though his current usage appears stable enough to maintain this edge. The market's continued undervaluation creates recurring value, particularly when Patrick maintains his current role as a trusted secondary option in a high-powered offense.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Tim Patrick's 61.5% over rate and +3.8 yard differential reveal consistent market undervaluation that creates sustainable betting value. The 17.5% ROI on overs demonstrates this edge translates to profit, while his role as a reliable secondary target provides the consistency needed for profitable prop betting. Main risk involves potential target redistribution in Detroit's deep receiving corps, but current usage patterns support continued over performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 16.5 | 22.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 17.5 | 15.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 27.5 | 0.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 32.5 | 0.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 29.5 | 30.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 24.5 | 43.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 21.5 | 48.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 15.5 | 55.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 15.5 | 26.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 23.5 | 12.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 30.5 | 0.0 | -30.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 22.5 | 25.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 17.5 | 68.0 | +50.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tim Patrick's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Tim Patrick has gone over his receiving yards prop in 8 of 13 games (61.5%) with a 5-game longest over streak. His consistent production above expectations creates a profitable 8-5-0 record that demonstrates market inefficiency in his pricing.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tim Patrick Receiving Yards all games?
Bet the over on Tim Patrick's receiving yards. His 61.5% over rate and +17.5% ROI show consistent value, with the market undervaluing his reliable production as Detroit's secondary receiving option by an average of 3.8 yards per game.
What's Tim Patrick's average Receiving Yards all games?
Tim Patrick averages 26.46 receiving yards per game against a typical line of 22.65 yards, creating a +3.8 yard edge. This differential represents meaningful value that translates to profitable over betting across his 13-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tim Patrick receiving yards overs when he maintains his current role in Detroit's offense. His value stems from consistent market undervaluation rather than specific game conditions, making this a reliable season-long edge worth exploiting regularly.