Taysom Hill's rushing yards props have delivered exceptional value over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 60% clip with a massive +13.6 yard differential above the average line. The Saints' unique offensive deployment of Hill continues to create mispriced markets. Strong lean over on future props.
Expert Analysis
The Saints' creative utilization of Taysom Hill as a Swiss Army knife offensive weapon has consistently caught oddsmakers off guard, creating a sustainable edge in rushing yards markets. Hill's 34.5 yard average against a 20.9 line represents a staggering 65% premium that speaks to fundamental market inefficiency rather than random variance. New Orleans deploys Hill in designed rushing situations that go beyond typical tight end usage, incorporating Wildcat packages, goal-line carries, and misdirection plays that inflate his ground production. The 14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates this isn't merely a hot streak but a systematic pricing error. Hill's dual-threat capability forces defenses into coverage conflicts, often leaving rushing lanes exposed when opponents prioritize his receiving routes. The persistence of this edge across 10 games suggests oddsmakers haven't adequately adjusted for Sean Payton's successor Dennis Allen maintaining similar creative packages. However, the sample size remains relatively modest, and increased market awareness could lead to line corrections. The Saints' offensive coordinator understanding Hill's unique skill set creates matchup advantages that traditional tight end metrics fail to capture, making his rushing props consistently undervalued in current market pricing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Taysom Hill's rushing yards props remain systematically underpriced due to his unique offensive role that transcends traditional tight end usage patterns. The 13.6 yard differential above market lines reflects genuine edge rather than variance. Target props in games where Saints face weaker run defenses or trailing game scripts that encourage creative play-calling. Main risk involves potential line corrections as market catches up to Hill's expanded rushing role.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 28.5 | 10.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 23.5 | 138.0 | +114.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 27.5 | 14.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 14.5 | 20.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 15.5 | 18.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 18.5 | 2.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 23.5 | 59.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 18.5 | 26.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 21.5 | 6.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 17.5 | 52.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Taysom Hill's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Taysom Hill has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate), averaging 34.5 yards against a 20.9 yard average line for a +13.6 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Taysom Hill Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet over on Taysom Hill rushing yards props. The 13.6 yard differential above market lines and 14.6% ROI on overs reflects systematic undervaluation of his unique offensive role.
What's Taysom Hill's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Taysom Hill averages 34.5 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 20.9 yards, representing a massive 65% premium above market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Taysom Hill rushing overs against weaker run defenses or in potential shootout games where Saints utilize creative offensive packages. Avoid when facing elite run defenses or blowout scenarios.