Tank Bigsby's rushing yards props have hit the over in exactly half his games (6-6-0), but he's averaging 52.1 yards against a 39.8-yard line—a massive +12.2 differential. Despite the neutral record, this significant line value creates a compelling case for targeting overs.
Expert Analysis
The most striking element of Tank Bigsby's rushing yards profile isn't his 50% over rate—it's the enormous gap between his production and market expectations. Averaging 52.1 yards against a 39.8-yard line represents a 30.6% edge that suggests books are consistently undervaluing his ceiling. This pattern typically emerges when a player's role is expanding faster than oddsmakers can adjust, or when his usage becomes more predictable in favorable game scripts. The -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates the market has been efficiently priced despite the production gap, likely due to juice and timing factors. However, Bigsby's ability to consistently exceed expectations by double digits points to sustainable value, particularly as Jacksonville's backfield hierarchy continues evolving. The key concern is whether this 12-game sample captures his true role or if early-season uncertainty inflated the differential. His recent under streak of one suggests natural variance rather than role regression, but the lack of split data makes it difficult to identify optimal spots. The neutral record combined with strong average production suggests Bigsby either smashes his number or falls well short, making timing and game script analysis crucial for maximizing this edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +12.2 yard differential between Bigsby's average (52.1) and typical lines (39.8) represents genuine value despite the neutral 6-6 record. Target overs when Jacksonville projects for positive game script or when his workload indicators suggest expanded touches. The main risk is role volatility in Jacksonville's backfield, but the consistent production gap indicates sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 46.5 | 33.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 44.5 | 50.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 53.5 | 42.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 34.5 | 55.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 37.5 | 28.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 44.5 | 4.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 64.5 | 78.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 58.5 | 118.0 | +59.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 40.5 | 24.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 26.5 | 101.0 | +74.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 15.5 | 90.0 | +74.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-19 | OPP | 11.5 | 2.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tank Bigsby's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Tank Bigsby has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of 12 games (50%) with an average of 52.1 yards against a typical line of 39.8 yards, creating a +12.2 differential despite the neutral record.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tank Bigsby Rushing Yards all games?
Lean over on Tank Bigsby's rushing yards props. His 52.1-yard average significantly exceeds typical 39.8-yard lines by 30.6%, indicating consistent market undervaluation despite the neutral 6-6 over/under record.
What's Tank Bigsby's average Rushing Yards all games?
Tank Bigsby averages 52.1 rushing yards across 12 games, compared to typical prop lines of 39.8 yards. This +12.2 yard differential represents a 30.6% edge over market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tank Bigsby rushing yards overs when Jacksonville projects for positive game script or increased workload. The +12.2 average differential provides consistent value, particularly early in games before role uncertainty resolves.