Samaje Perine's receiving yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40.0% over rate across 10 games with a brutal -23.6% ROI on overs. Despite averaging 16.8 yards against an 11.9 line, the inconsistency makes unders the sharp play.
Expert Analysis
Perine's receiving production tells a tale of two narratives fighting for supremacy. The raw numbers suggest value on overs - he's averaging 16.8 receiving yards against lines typically set around 11.9, creating a healthy 4.9-yard cushion. Yet this surface-level analysis misses the critical volatility factor that's been crushing over bettors. The 40.0% over rate paired with a devastating -23.6% ROI on overs reveals a player whose production swings wildly based on game script and role deployment. As Kansas City's third-down specialist and change-of-pace back, Perine's receiving opportunities depend heavily on game flow, opponent strength, and the health of primary targets. When the Chiefs build leads early, Perine often sees reduced passing game involvement as they lean on ground control. The current two-game under streak aligns with this pattern, suggesting recent game scripts haven't favored his receiving role. The concerning element for over bettors is how frequently Perine fails to reach even modest receiving lines despite his higher average - a classic trap where outlier performances inflate averages while consistency remains elusive. This volatility pattern typically persists for role players whose usage fluctuates with game situations rather than following predictable snap counts.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with the 60.0% hit rate creates a sustainable edge despite Perine's inflated average. Target unders when Kansas City is favored by more than a touchdown, as positive game scripts typically reduce his passing game involvement. The main risk is a blowout loss forcing heavy passing volume, but the Chiefs' offensive efficiency makes this scenario less likely than continued inconsistent deployment.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 11.5 | 50.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 9.5 | 23.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 7.5 | 37.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 13.5 | 24.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 14.5 | 0.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 17.5 | 15.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 10.5 | 3.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 16.5 | 16.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Samaje Perine's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Perine has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 4 of 10 games (40.0% rate) with a 4-6-0 record. Despite averaging 16.8 yards against 11.9 lines, over bettors have lost money with -23.6% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Samaje Perine Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Perine's receiving yards. The 14.6% ROI on unders with 60.0% hit rate creates consistent value, especially when Kansas City is heavily favored and likely to control games through rushing.
What's Samaje Perine's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Perine averages 16.8 receiving yards over his last 10 games against typical lines of 11.9 yards, creating a +4.9 differential. However, this average is inflated by outlier performances while consistency remains poor.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Perine receiving yards unders when Kansas City is favored by 7+ points or playing weaker opponents where positive game script reduces his passing game role as a change-of-pace receiving option.