Sam LaPorta has been a consistent under performer in divisional games, hitting the over just 36.4% of the time with a brutal -9.8 yard average differential. The Lions tight end averages 34.64 receiving yards against division rivals while his lines typically sit around 44.41 yards. This represents a strong systematic under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
LaPorta's divisional struggles stem from the NFC North's familiarity with Detroit's offensive schemes and his role within them. Division opponents have faced the Lions twice annually, allowing defensive coordinators to study his route concepts and develop specific coverage adjustments. The 9.8-yard negative differential isn't just bad luck—it reflects how Chicago, Green Bay, and Minnesota have consistently bracketed LaPorta with safety help and physical press coverage at the line. The Lions' divisional game script also contributes to this trend, as these contests often become ground-heavy affairs where Detroit leans on their rushing attack to control clock and field position. LaPorta's target share decreases in these methodical, possession-based approaches that characterize divisional rivalry games. The persistence of this trend across 11 games suggests structural factors rather than random variance. His longest over streak of just one game compared to a five-game under streak demonstrates how consistently division defenses have neutralized his receiving production. The -30.6% ROI on overs confirms this isn't a market inefficiency that's been corrected—books continue setting lines that overestimate LaPorta's divisional receiving output.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. LaPorta's 36.4% over rate and -9.8 yard differential in divisional games represents one of the most reliable under trends for any skill position player. The structural advantages division opponents hold through familiarity and preparation create a sustainable edge. Target unders when his line exceeds 40 yards, as the gap between expectation and reality widens. The main risk is Detroit implementing new offensive concepts, but their ground-heavy divisional approach limits that concern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 51.5 | 63.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 45.5 | 43.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 37.5 | 54.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 37.5 | 6.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 42.5 | 28.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 42.5 | 25.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 49.5 | 18.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 46.5 | 23.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 44.5 | 47.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 46.5 | 18.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-28 | OPP | 44.5 | 56.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Sam LaPorta props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sam LaPorta's Receiving Yards prop record divisional games?
LaPorta is 4-7-0 on receiving yards overs in divisional games, hitting just 36.4% of his overs across 11 contests from 2023-2025. He averages 34.64 yards against division rivals while his typical line sits around 44.41 yards, creating a significant -9.8 yard differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards divisional games?
Bet the under on LaPorta's receiving yards in divisional games with high confidence. His 36.4% over rate and -9.8 yard average differential represent a systematic market inefficiency. The structural advantages division opponents hold through familiarity make this a sustainable betting edge.
What's Sam LaPorta's average Receiving Yards divisional games?
LaPorta averages 34.64 receiving yards in divisional games, nearly 10 yards below his typical line of 44.41. This -9.8 yard differential has been consistent across 11 games, demonstrating how division opponents have successfully limited his receiving production through targeted defensive schemes.
How reliable is this trend?
Target LaPorta receiving yards unders when his line exceeds 40 yards in divisional games. The gap between market expectations and actual performance widens at higher numbers. Avoid betting his props in non-divisional games where this trend doesn't apply and his production normalizes.