Sam Howell's rushing yards prop shows minimal edge with a 50% over rate across 10 games, averaging 16.4 yards against a 15.0 line. The modest +1.4 differential and negative ROI on both sides signal an efficiently priced market with limited betting value.
Expert Analysis
Sam Howell's rushing yards trend reveals a quarterback whose mobility is accurately assessed by oddsmakers. The 16.4-yard average against a 15.0 line creates only a 1.4-yard cushion, which the 50% over rate confirms as marginal. The negative 4.5% ROI on both sides indicates books are pricing this prop efficiently, capturing the inherent variance in quarterback rushing attempts. Howell's rushing production likely stems from designed runs and scrambles under pressure, making it highly game-script dependent. The balanced 5-5 over-under record with alternating streaks of three games maximum suggests no persistent bias toward either outcome. Without favorable splits or situational edges, this represents a coin-flip proposition where books maintain their edge through precise line-setting. The lack of recent form data prevents identifying momentum shifts, while the absence of split analysis removes potential leverage points like home-road differentials or opponent-specific matchups that could tilt the scales.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The perfectly balanced 50% over rate and negative ROI on both sides indicate an efficiently priced market where the house edge is firmly intact. While Howell averages slightly above the typical 15.0 line, the 1.4-yard differential isn't substantial enough to overcome the built-in juice, especially without situational splits to exploit specific advantages.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 15.5 | 0.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 17.5 | 22.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 14.5 | 21.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 14.5 | 13.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 13.5 | 35.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 16.5 | 17.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 13.5 | 27.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 14.5 | 11.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 15.5 | 15.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 3.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sam Howell's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Sam Howell went 5-5 over-under on rushing yards props in his last 10 games, hitting the over exactly 50% of the time with an average of 16.4 yards against typical 15.0 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sam Howell Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Pass on Sam Howell's rushing yards props. The perfectly balanced 50% over rate and negative ROI on both sides indicate an efficiently priced market with no clear edge for bettors.
What's Sam Howell's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Sam Howell averaged 16.4 rushing yards over his last 10 games, running 1.4 yards above the typical 15.0 line but not enough to generate positive returns for bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Sam Howell's rushing yards props without additional situational context. The current data shows no favorable splits or conditions that would create a meaningful betting advantage over the house edge.